North displays enough ICBM launchers to defeat U.S. missile defense

North Korea displayed the largest number of its longest-range intercontinental ballistic missile at a nighttime military parade on Wednesday, as well as mock-ups of a new solid-fuel missile under development, state media photos showed Thursday.

A photo released by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) shows a vehicle carrying a mock-up of a solid-fuel intercontinental missile under development at a military parade in Kim Il Sung Square in downtown Pyongyang on Wednesday evening. [YONHAP]

North Korea displayed the largest number of its longest-range intercontinental ballistic missile at a nighttime military parade on Wednesday, as well as mock-ups of a new solid-fuel missile under development, state media photos showed Thursday.

Photos also showed leader Kim Jong-un and his daughter Kim Ju-ae smiling from a viewing stand as they observed Wednesday’s parade in Pyongyang's Kim Il Sung Square, which marked the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Army (KPA).

Pyongyang’s state-controlled Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) released photos that showed weapons in the parade procession included at least 11 Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) carried by 11-axle (22-wheeled) transporter-erector-launchers (TEL), as well as five 9-axle TELs carrying missile canisters representing solid-fuel ICBMs.

The Hwasong-17 has an estimated range of 15,000 kilometers (9,320 miles) — enough to reach all of the continental United States.

North Korea’s TELs lend greater mobility and survivability to the regime’s missiles should Pyongyang decide to fire them, especially if the missiles are powered by solid-fuel engines that do not need to be fueled at their launch site, unlike most liquid-fuel missiles.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, left, observes Wednesday evening's military parade in downtown Pyongyang with his daughter Kim Ju-ae, right, in this photo released by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). [YONHAP]

“[This] may well be the first North Korean military parade to exhibit a number of ICBM launchers in excess of that needed to saturate existing U.S. GMD deployment,” wrote Ankit Panda, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on Twitter.

GMD refers to the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system, the only operationally deployed U.S. missile defense program capable of defending the mainland United States, including Alaska and Hawaii, against long-range ballistic missile attacks.

The United States currently has 44 ground-based interceptors, but current military logic assumes 4 interceptors are required for each missile re-entry vehicle.

In previous testimony to the U.S. Senate’s Armed Services Committee, Panda said Pyongyang could overwhelm the currently deployed GMD system with 10 ICBM launchers, especially with a larger ICBM capable of delivering multiple reentry vehicles.

A photo released by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) shows a procession of Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) at a military parade marking the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army in Kim Il Sung Square in downtown Pyongyang on Wednesday evening. [YONHAP]

Panda also called the appearance of vehicles with mounted mock-ups of a “canisterized” solid-fuel ICBM at the parade as representing a “more credible” threat “than the last time they paraded similar mock-ups in 2017, given broad [North Korean] progress in solid rocket motors.”

State media claimed the regime successfully tested a “high-thrust solid-fuel motor” for a “new-type strategic weapons system” at the Sohae Satellite Testing Ground on Dec. 15, while satellite images taken on Jan. 29 and Jan. 30 showed the regime likely conducted another solid-fuel engine test at a different site between those dates.

The North already possesses solid-fuel missiles, but these are its short-range ballistic missiles, dubbed KN-23, KN-24 and KN-25 by U.S. military intelligence. The range of these missiles is between 400 and 500 kilometers — enough to reach most targets in South Korea and Japan.

Yang Uk, a research fellow at the Asan Institute’s Center for Foreign Policy and National Security, said it was likely that the new solid-fuel missile canisters that were displayed at Wednesday’s parade were mock-ups for a new, solid-fuel version of a Hwasong-14 or Hwasong-15-type ICBM, given the shorter length of the chassis carrying the canisters compared to the TELs carrying the Hwasong-17 missiles.

The Hwasong 14 has a range of approximately 10,000 kilometers, while the Hwasong-15’s range is estimated to be between 8,500 and 13,000 kilometers.

Yang also noted that the TELs carrying missile canisters at Wednesday’s parade were longer than the 8-axle vehicles used to carry canisters at the April 2017 parade.

Although he acknowledged the possibility that the North was “bluffing” by showing empty canisters at the parade, Yang also said it was unlikely.

“Recently, the North has often shown a model of a new weapon before embarking on actual developmental testing," he said.

"I think we should assume that this is not a toy weapon, but a weapons system that is currently in the development stage.”

BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]