President Yoon Stands Firm and Alert: Tension Peaks on the Korean Peninsula

On January 4, President Yoon Suk-yeol instructed the Office of National Security to review suspending the effect of the September 19 military agreement if North Korea provoked the South by invading South Korean territory again. He also ordered the security office to establish a joint drone unit and to develop micro drones by the end of the year to respond to the North’s drone provocation. The president is considering the suspension of the inter-Korean agreement as he strengthens the military response to a series of provocations by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). Military tension on the Korean Peninsula is expected to further escalate as the two Koreas continue this confrontation of hardline positions.

Senior Secretary for Public Relations Kim Eun-hye announced that President Yoon Suk-yeol gave the instructions when receiving a report on our strategy in response to the drones by the Office of National Security, the Ministry of National Defense, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Agency for Defense Development (ADD) at the Office of the President in Yongsan. This was the first time that President Yoon personally mentioned the possibility of suspending the effects of the September 19 military accord.

The September 19 military accord was adopted as a result of the third summit between President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in 2018. The agreement includes provisions aiming to cease all hostile acts in every domain--land, sea, and air--that could trigger military tensions and clashes.

A senior official from the presidential office said, “Abnormal days have continued where violations of the (Sept. 19) agreement, including the DPRK’s provocation with missiles as well as drones, have virtually become the norm,” and explained, “The suspension of the September 19 military agreement was a decision by the head of administration as well as the commander in chief to protect the lives and safety of our citizens.”

The Development of Inter-Korean Relations Act stipulates, “The President may suspend all or part of effects of each South-North Korean agreement for a fixed specific period, when significant changes occur in inter-Korean relations or when it is deemed necessary for national security, maintenance of order or public welfare.”

President Yoon’s instructions suggest an assessment that the September 19 military agreement has practically been scrapped by the North’s provocations. On October 14, 2022 when the DPRK simultaneously engaged in multiple acts of provocation, President Yoon told the press on his way to work that the North’s actions were clearly a violation of the agreement. The president appears to have heightened his pressure on the North by preemptively mentioning the suspension of the September 19 military accord after the North sent drones into the South’s airspace last month.

The government’s hardline response to the North’s provocations is likely to fuel tension between the two Koreas. Experts argue that if the military agreement is suspended, it could be difficult for the government to pressure the North with inter-Korean agreements. There is always the possibility that the North will use this as an excuse to heighten military provocations. This may be why President Yoon said he was “reviewing” the suspension rather than canceling the agreement immediately.

President Yoon instructed Minister of National Defense Lee Jong-sup to establish a joint drone unit for multi-purpose operations, such as reconnaissance and electronic warfare, and to build a system that can mass produce small unmanned aerial vehicles, difficult to detect, by the end of this year. The president stressed the production of stealth drones within this year and the swift development of a “drone-killer” system. Press Secretary Kim said that the president “ordered the capability for an overpowering response.”

Shortly after the president’s directions, the defense ministry announced a plan on the direction of our response to North Korean drone provocations including the establishment of a joint drone command and the development of a stealth drone by the end of the year.