Tropical Cyclone 14 Nanmadol Is Born: Will Another "Strong" Typhoon Come Our Way?

This day, the Korea Meteorological Administration announced that Tropical Cyclone No. 14 Nanmadol was born in the waters 1,300 kilometers east-southeast of Okinawa, Japan at 3a.m. September 14. Courtesy of the Korea Meteorological Administration

Tropical Cyclone No. 14 Nanmadol was born on September 14. Based on the data so far, the Korea Meteorological Administration announced that there was a possibility of the latest typhoon affecting the Korean Peninsula.

Nanmadol appeared in the waters around 1,300 kilometers east-southeast of Okinawa, Japan at 3:00a.m. September 14. As of 9a.m. this day, the atmospheric pressure at the center of the storm was 994hPa, and the storm had a max wind speed of 21m/s (76km/h). Nanmadol was a name submitted by Micronesia and is the name of an archaeological site.

Nanmadol is expected to move somewhat east as a tropical low-pressure system and begin to build power as it changes direction and heads northwest on the night of September 14. It is expected to head west-northwest until September 17 and reach the waters 240 kilometers north-northeast of Okinawa, Japan around September 18. Then the tropical cyclone is expected to gradually head north. Nanmadol could grow to become a “strong” typhoon with atmospheric pressure of 970 hPa at the center and max wind speeds of 35m/s (126km/h). If under the direct influence of a “strong” typhoon, trains can be derailed.

Nanmadol is expected to approach waters approximately 280 kilometers south-southeast of Seogwipo, Jeju while maintaining super-level strength at 9 a.m. September 19. Jeju will be included in the radius where gale-force winds (15m/s or higher) are expected.

The sea surface temperature in the typhoon’s route is high, reaching 28-29°C, so the storm is expected to maintain its strength.

For a typhoon to maintain its strength, the difference in wind direction between the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere must be small. As of 3 a.m. September 14, the vertical shear was small up to areas near Jeju. Depending on the vertical shear when the typhoon approaches, the tropical cyclone may affect the Korean Peninsula still maintaining its strength.

However, the typhoon’s route is still highly volatile. The Korea Meteorological Administration said, “The location of the typhoon can change in 4-5 days, but we ask citizens to listen carefully to weather forecasts announced after that.”

As of 9a.m. September 14, Tropical Cyclone No. 12 Muifa was in the waters 420 kilometers south-southeast of Shanghai, China. It remains a strong-level tropical cyclone in scale. Muifa is expected to land near Shanghai. Tropical Cyclone No. 13 Merbok was in the waters 2,340 kilometers northeast of Guam at 3 a.m. this day and is expected to disappear in the sea in a couple of days.