Pelosi opens the door to Xi's fourth term

Korea has to think about "China in the next 10 years" instead of "China in the next 5 years" when planning its China strategy.

YOU SANG-CHULThe author is the head of the China Institute of the JoongAng Ilbo. Who has benefitted the most from U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan? Chinese President Xi Jinping may just be the biggest beneficiary. Why? Pelosi opened the road to Xi’s fourth consecutive term. Xi is seeking to seal his third consecutive term at the 20th Party Congress in the fall. He is breaking the convention of the 10-year regime. Why should Xi be an exception?

Xi proposed the vision of “Chinese Dream” early on. The dream is to “realize the great revival of the Chinese nation,” and the focus is the “revival.” The implication is to return to the pre-Opium War era when the Qing Dynasty was the most powerful nation in the world. To attain the goal, China needs to surpass the United States.

China needs a strong leader like Xi to fight and defeat the United States. That’s why China is confronting the United States in every event during the Xi Jinping era. The problem is that Xi’s plan for prolonged rule does not end here. He needs a justification for the fourth term to be in power for another five years, and Pelosi’s Taiwan visit sparked the fire.

The Chinese army continues to use the name — the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) — because it hasn’t liberated Taiwan yet. And Pelosi’s Taiwan visit reminded China of that role. 2027 is the centennial of the founding of the PLA. It is also the year of the 21st Party Congress to determine Xi’s fourth term. Xi has no intention to step down from the power. Upon successfully finishing the rule for the third term, he will start preparing for the fourth term.

There’s no greater pretext for the fourth term than the liberation of Taiwan. He can bring 1.4 billion Chinese people together with patriotic passion. If the liberation of Taiwan is successful, Xi will be remembered in history as the leader who unified all of China for the first time since the founding of the country. It is obvious that the cross-strait crisis between China and Taiwan would intensify in the future.

Korea has to think about “China in the next 10 years” instead of “China in the next 5 years” when planning its China strategy. We need to closely watch how the rough waves in the strait in the next five years bring winds and rain in the Korean Peninsula. If an armed clash happens between China and Taiwan, who can guarantee Korea would not smell the gunpowder?