Yoon Seok-youl Gains the Support of 40.6%, While Lee Jae-myung Backed by 36.7% and Ahn Cheol-soo by 12.9%

[경향신문]

On January 17, a poll showed that Yoon Seok-youl, the presidential candidate of the People Power Party, had a lead outside the margin of error against Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea in a race among multiple candidates.

An OhmyNews-Realmeter survey of 3,031 people ages eighteen and older conducted on January 9-14 showed that support for Yoon Seok-youl rose 6.5% from the previous week to 40.6%. Lee Jae-myung was supported by 36.7% of the respondents, down 3.4%.

The gap between the two candidates was 3.9%, bigger than the margin of error (confidence level 95%, ±1.8% margin of error). Lee enjoyed a lead over Yoon outside the margin of error last week, but the results were overturned this week, with Yoon in the lead.

Realmeter believes the People Power Party’s resolution of conflicts in its election campaign and the death of the man who first raised allegations on Lee Jae-myung’s questionable payment of legal expenses affected the voter support for the two candidates.

Yoon gained more support in Incheon, Gyeonggi (up 9.4%); Daegu, Gyeongsangbuk-do (up 7.3%); Gwangju, Jeolla (up 5.8%); and Seoul (up 3.5%), and support for him surged among men (up 10.1%) and people in their twenties (up 21.5%) and thirties (up 9.5%).

Meanwhile, Lee lost support in Gwangju, Jeolla (down 5.5%); Incheon, Gyeonggi (down 5.1%); and Seoul (down 4.8%). He also lost support among male voters (down 4.6%) and among voters in their thirties (down 10.3%) and twenties (down 7.9%). However, he managed to gain more support among voters ages seventy and older (up 5.0%).

When asked, “If Yoon Seok-youl becomes the single candidate of the People Power Party and the People’s Party, who will you vote for?” 45.2% of the respondents chose Yoon and 37.0% chose Lee. If the two opposition parties stood behind Ahn Cheol-soo as the single candidate, 42.2% answered that they would vote for Ahn and 34.3% said they would vote for Lee. Sim Sang-jeung of the Justice Party received the support of 3.2% of the respondents. Lee Jae-myung fell behind the opposition party candidate, whether it be Yoon or Ahn, by a margin outside the margin of error.

However, when respondents were asked to choose the candidate who was most likely to be elected, 46.2% chose Lee, while 41.9% chose Yoon and 5.7% chose Ahn. The gap narrowed after the result dropped by 6.6% for Lee and rose by 7.0% for Yoon compared to the previous week’s survey.

The latest survey was conducted through wireless interviews (20%) and through ARS questionnaires on cell phones (75%) and telephones (5%). It had a response rate of 7.6%. For more details on the survey, please refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.