In 2070, South Korea Will Have the Highest Life Expectancy but Lowest Fertility Rate among OECD Countries

[경향신문]
Fifty years from now, South Koreans may live the longest among citizens of OECD countries, while the average South Korean woman is expected to bear the smallest number of children during her lifetime. The burden on the economically productive population (ages 15-64) is also expected to be the heaviest in South Korea compared with other OECD member states.

According to Population Projections for Korea: 2020-2070 recently released by Statistics Korea on December 13, in a basic scenario, the life expectancy of South Koreans in 2070 is expected to reach 91.2 (89.5 for men, 92.8 for women), meaning that a person born in 2070 would be expected to live until 91.2 years of age.

Statistics Korea projected the average life expectancy of South Koreans from 2065-2070 to be 90.9, the highest among the 38 OECD member states. Other countries expected to have a high average life expectancy were Norway (90.2), Finland (89.4), Japan (89.3), and Canada (89.3). The OECD member expected to have the lowest life expectancy was Ireland (82.0), followed by Denmark (82.7), Estonia (82.8), and the U.S.A. (83.6).

The life expectancy of South Koreans has increased by more than twenty years in the last fifty years, from 62.3 in 1970 to 66.1 in 1980, 71.7 in 1990, 76.0 in 2000, 80.2 in 2010 and 83.5 in 2020.

Meanwhile, the number of working-age citizens is expected to account for only 46.1% of the national population in 2070, the lowest among OECD countries. Japan is expected to follow with 50.5%, but the gap between the two countries was bigger than 5%. Just last year, 72.1% of the population in South Korea were economically productive, the highest rate among OECD states. Luxemburg followed with 70.1%.

The projection of the 2065-2070 total fertility rate was 1.21, placing South Korea at the bottom of the list of OECD countries. The figure was higher than the 0.84 in 2020, but it still trailed behind the projections for Italy (1.57), Greece (1.59) and Japan (1.62). Countries expected to have the highest total fertility rate were Israel (2.19), France (1.83), Sweden (1.83) and the U.S. (1.82).

The dependency ratio, a measure of the number of dependents (minors and the elderly) per 100 working-age persons, was also 116.8, putting South Korea at the top of the OECD member countries. South Korea was the only OECD member expected to have a three-digit dependency ratio.