Yoon Seok-youl Leads Lee Jae-myung, 45.3% to 37.1%: The Difference Lies Outside the Margin of Error

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Kyunghyang Shinmun Archives

The People Power Party’s presidential candidate Yoon Seok-youl enjoyed an 8.2% lead, which was bigger than the margin of error, against the Democratic Party of Korea’s presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung in a latest survey.

Upon request from YTN, the polling firm, Realmeter conducted a survey of 1,036 adults ages 18 and older on December 6 and 7, and the results (confidence level 95%, margin of error ±3.0%) showed that Yoon secured the support of 45.3% of the voters, up 1.6% from the previous poll (Nov. 26-27). Lee gained the support of 2.0% more voters from the previous poll and received the support of 37.1%. The gap between the two candidates was 8.2%.

They were followed by Justice Party candidate Sim Sang-jeung with 4.0%, People’s Party candidate Ahn Cheol-soo with 2.5%, and the New Wave candidate Kim Dong-yeon with 1.6%. People who answered they did not support any candidate or they did not know accounted for 7.2% of the respondents.

A regional analysis showed that Yoon received strong support in Jeju (68.2%); Daegu and Gyeongsangbuk-do (57.0%); Gangwon (55.6%); Daejeon, Chungcheong, Sejong (50.3%); Seoul (49.6%); and Busan, Ulsan, Gyeongsangnam-do (47.9%), while Lee received support in Gwangju, Jeolla (66.4%) and Incheon, Gyeonggi (41.7%).

According to the age of the voters, the survey showed that Yoon had the lead among voters in their twenties (39.8%), thirties (38.3%), sixties and older (58.0%), while people in their forties (49.0%) and fifties (48.9%) supported Lee.

However, when it came to a two-way race between the two candidates, the situation was different. Yoon was supported by 46.9% of the respondents, but this figure has been dropping for the fourth consecutive week. Meanwhile, support for Lee has continued to climb and he was supported by 42.0% in the latest survey narrowing the gap to 4.9%. In the first poll conducted in early November, the gap between the two candidates reached 13%. Lee has managed to narrow the gap by 8.1% in four weeks.

The response rate of the latest survey was 7.5%. The survey was conducted using an audience response system (ARS) calling cell phones (90%) and telephones (10%). For more details, please refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.