Who Will Defeat Lee Jae-myung? Hong Joon-pyo 38.2%, Yoon Seok-youl 33.1%

[경향신문]

Candidates in the People Power Party presidential primaries cheer as they take part in a debate in the Gangwon region, held at G1 Gangwon Television Broadcasting in Dong-myeon, Chuncheon-si, Gangwon-do on the afternoon of October 27. From left is former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, former Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong, former lawmaker Yoo Seong-min, and lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo. Yonhap News

On October 28, a poll showed that lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo was ahead of former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl outside the margin of error in the People Power Party primaries. Hong was also ahead in a virtual two-way race against the Democratic Party of Korea’s presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung with a lead bigger than the margin of error.

This day, Realmeter released the results of a survey commissioned by OhmyNews. The polling firm surveyed 2,035 people ages 18 and older nationwide on October 25-26, and the results showed that respondents supported the presidential candidates in the People Power Party in the order of Hong Joon-pyo (38.2%), Yoon Seok-youl (33.1%), former lawmaker Yoo Seong-min (10.9%), and former Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong (4.1%). Hong was ahead of Yoon by 5.1%, a gap bigger than the margin of error (The survey had a confidence level of 95% with a 2.2% margin of error. For more details, please refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission). Compared with a survey by the same firm two weeks ago, support for Hong increased much more (12.7%) than support for Yoon (2.8%). Among the People Power Party supporters, Yoon was most popular (55.6%), followed by Hong (34.5%), Yoo (3.4%) and Won (3.0%).

In a virtual two-way race against Lee Jae-myung, Yoon was ahead (45.3%) of Lee (40.9%) by 4.4%, which remained within the margin of error, while Hong was ahead (44.4%) of Lee (38.9%) by 5.5%, a gap bigger than the margin of error. Won (43.8%) also defeated Lee (40.1%) by 3.7%, while Yoo (36.1%) trailed Lee (40.0%) by 3.9%, but both gaps were within the margin of error.

If Yoon is elected as the presidential candidate of the People Power Party, a virtual four-way race resulted with Lee earning 34.6%, followed by Yoon (34.4%), Justice Party candidate Sim Sang-jeung (4.4%), and People’s Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo (4.0%). Lee earned 0.6% more support from the survey two weeks ago, while Yoon gained 0.7%. Sim also managed to get 0.2% more support, while support for Ahn remained the same.

Bae Cheol-ho, a senior analyst at Realmeter said, “The increase in support for Lee is disappointing given the positive factors, such as a positive assessment of his performance at the parliamentary inspection, his meeting with former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon, and his meeting with President Moon Jae-in,” and added, “He has yet to free himself from the Daejang-dong issue.”

A virtual four-way race with Hong resulted in Lee in the lead with 34.3%, followed by Hong (29.3%), Ahn (5.7%) and Sim (5.1%). In the four-way race against Yoon, the race was close with Lee barely holding onto a lead within the margin of error, but in the race against Hong, Lee enjoyed a lead (5.0%) outside the margin of error. Support for Lee increased by 1.9% from two weeks ago, while support for Hong increased by 2.1%, for Ahn by 0.6% and for Sim by 0.1%.