[News analysis] Kim Yo-jong signals possibility of inter-Korean summit

Two consecutive positive statements from Kim Yo-jong seem to signal that the North is willing to resume talks with the South, including the possibility of an inter-Korean summit like that held in 2018

President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un cross over the Military Demarcation Line at Panmunjom ahead of the 2018 inter-Korean summit held on April 27, 2018. (pool photo)

The Korean Peninsula’s political clock is set to start ticking again after coming to an effective halt in the wake of the collapse of the North Korea-US summit in Hanoi in February 2019.

North Korea responded with unprecedented speed and enthusiasm to South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s repeated references to a possible declaration to end the Korean War in a UN General Assembly speech on Tuesday.

On Saturday evening, Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) Central Committee Vice Department Director Kim Yo-jong published a statement through the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

“I think that only when impartiality and the attitude of respecting each other are maintained [. . .] can several issues for improving the relations [including] the north-south summit [. . .] see meaningful and successful solution one by one at an early date through constructive discussions,” she wrote.

The latest statement came one day after another by Kim in which she shared North Korea’s willingness to “have constructive discussion” with South Korea “about the restoration and development of the bilateral relations” if it is “not hostile toward us.”

It’s a clearly favorable attitude in comparison with Kim’s statement on Aug. 1 about the South Korean response to the restoration of inter-Korean communication hotlines on July 27. At the time, Kim said it would be a “premature, careless judgment” to raise the possibility of an inter-Korean summit after the hotlines were restored.

Her remarks read as a strong signal that North Korea would like to move past the current political impasse through a “top-down” approach along the same lines as 2018, including a possible summit between Moon and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

In addition to the possibility of a summit, Kim also explicitly mentioned the “timely declaration of the significant termination of the war” and “the reestablishment of the north-south joint liaison office.”

Kim gave two reasons for the change of heart.

“I felt that the atmosphere of the south Korean public desiring to recover the inter-Korean relations from a deadlock and achieve peaceful stability as soon as possible is irresistibly strong,” she wrote, adding that “we, too, have the same desire.”

She also said that there was “no need for the north and the south to waste time faulting each other and engaging in a war of words at present.” Her message suggested that the two sides should work on resolving their issues quickly to answer demands on both sides for a restoration of relations and peaceful stability.

Kim went on to stress her “hope that the south Korean authorities' moves” to eliminate the “US and south Korean-style double standards” and “hostile policy toward the DRPK” are “shown in visible practice,” describing Washington and Seoul’s attitude as a “blunt disregard of and challenge to the sovereignty of the DPRK.” In effect, she was asking South Korea for help as a partner in persuading the US.

The attitude could be seen as a shift toward seeking to restore inter-Korean relations as a step toward improving North Korea-US relations — effectively a 180-degree turnaround from the way Pyongyang has prioritized relations with Washington and relegated inter-Korean relations to the back burner since the Hanoi summit collapse in 2019. Some behind-the-scenes agreements may have been traded between South and North in the process.

The factors behind this shift from Pyongyang can be divided into political ones and structural ones.

As a political factor, Moon crucially opened the door for Beijing to step in when he mentioned “the three parties of the two Koreas and the US, or four parties of the two Koreas, the US and China” as possible participants in an end-of-war declaration during his UN speech.

On Wednesday, South Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs Chung Eui-yong also spoke openly about the need to consider easing sanctions against the North through a “snapback” approach, in which the sanctions would automatically snap back into place if the North fails to honor its promises.

Moon and Chung would not have broached the topics of sanctions relief and a role for China in New York — heart of both the US and the UN — without some strategic decision having first been made. Kim Yo-jong’s statement read as a favorable response to that.

Also contributing to boosting Pyongyang’s hopes that restoring inter-Korean relations might lead to improvements in North Korea-US relations was US President Joe Biden’s expression of “support for inter-Korean dialogue, engagement, and cooperation” in a statement following the South Korea-US summit in Washington on May 21.

In structural terms, North Korea’s internal economic situation is a factor. According to analysts, its decision may have been influenced by its economic stagnation and decline reaching a critical point, as the closure of its borders amid the COVID-19 pandemic since January 2020 has combined with heavy US and UN sanctions targeting the “people’s economy.”

The first test of the sincerity of Kim’s statement will be whether use of the inter-Korean communication hotlines is resumed.

After a 413-day shutdown, those hotlines were restored on July 27, the anniversary of the Armistice Agreement that suspended hostilities in the Korean War.

But the North has not actually picked up any calls since an end-of-day call on the afternoon of Aug. 10, the same day that Kim issued a statement denouncing joint South Korea-US military exercises.

South Korea continues to attempt calls every morning and evening. Technically, the hotlines would be considered back in service if North Korea simply answered its morning call on Monday.

On Sunday, the South Korean Ministry of Unification said it viewed Kim’s statement Saturday as “significant,” stressing that the “inter-Korean communication hotlines should first be quickly restored.” Once those hotlines are operating again, that will pave the way for dialogue among South and North Korean authorities and discussions toward reestablishing the joint liaison office.

North Korea’s attitude suggests that an agreement may be reached much sooner than expected, including a swift resumption of calls on the inter-Korean hotline.

But the path toward an end-of-war declaration and an inter-Korean summit is much longer and fraught with difficulties. Kim left things up in the air with her proviso that the remarks were “just my personal view” — even though her statement would have been pre-approved by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

This underscores the importance of establishing a bridge to allow inter-Korean dialogue — now much more likely to resume — to lead to dialogue between North Korea and the US. The path to sustainable peace on the Korean Peninsula can’t be cleared unless the inter-Korean dialogue leads in turn to North Korea-US dialogue.

Both the US and North Korea have shown their unwillingness to make the first concession when it comes to sanctions relief and meaningful denuclearization measures, respectively.

It’s a situation where cooperation on vaccines could prime the pump for dialogue, since that would allow the North to end its painful border closure and venture out into the world again.

A former senior South Korean government official suggested, “I think it would have a positive effort toward North Korea-US dialogue if South Korea and the US were to offer the North at least 40 million doses of Pfizer [or Moderna] vaccine, which would be enough to inoculate about 80 percent of North Koreans.”

“If North Korea-US dialogue resumes, they would just need to have negotiations to coordinate between sanctions relief and denuclearization measures,” they said.

By Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer

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