Increased vaccinations, continued distancing effects to show by mid-September, experts say

Experts say that the recent number of new cases are within their modeling, and that new cases will be on the decline by mid-September with increased vaccines, maintained countermeasures

A health worker collects a sample to test for COVID-19 at a temporary screening station in Seoul on Thursday. (Yonhap News)

South Korea saw more than 2,000 new confirmed COVID-19 cases for the second straight day Wednesday amid increased numbers in the greater Seoul area.

The government views the caseload as being within a predictable scope, suggesting that the transmission-curbing effects of increased vaccinations will begin to be seen in mid-September.

But with restrictions eased on Monday on the number of people allowed in private gatherings and with large-scale travel anticipated between greater Seoul and the rest of South Korea during the upcoming Chuseok holiday, experts stressed the need for people to not let their guard down amid preparations for a “gradual return to normal.”

The Central Disease Control Headquarters (CDCH) announced Thursday that a total of 2,049 new confirmed cases had been counted as of the end of the previous day, with 366 patients in severe or critical condition.

It was the second straight day with more than 2,000 new cases after the 2,048 recorded on Tuesday. The number of severe and critical cases was down by 21 from Tuesday.

The Wednesday total included 1,407 confirmed cases in the greater Seoul area — including the city of Seoul, Gyeonggi Province, and Incheon — accounting for 68.7% of the overall caseload.

The number was down slightly from 1,476 (73.3%) the day before, but the overall trend of increase has continued.

“The common conclusion reached by various simulations is that as vaccinations increase according to the administration’s targets, we will start to really see a stoppage of transmission and a decline in severe cases around the middle to end of September,” Son Young-rae, director of the Central Disaster Management Headquarters (CDMH) social strategy group, said Thursday.

“But those models were based on the assumption that disease control measures would be maintained, and people would remain on guard,” he added, saying that outcomes could differ significantly depending on what efforts would be made during September.

A mathematical modeling analysis of the COVID-19 situation published on the National Institute for Mathematical Sciences webpage on Aug. 27 by a research team led by Konkuk University professor Jung Eun-ok predicted that the daily domestic caseload would total 1,810 with 353 severe or critical cases by Friday — two weeks from the publication date — if the current distancing and other measures were kept in place.

That scenario presumed that 85 percent of South Koreans aged 18 to 49 would be vaccinated by the end of this month; the government is currently estimating that the actual rate will be 84 percent.

“The ‘1,810’ number represents the average weekly number of confirmed cases, which have tended to drop to the 1,400–1,600 range during the weekend and rise to the 1,900–2,100 range during the week,” Jung said in a telephone interview with the Hankyoreh.

“Having over 2,000 cases for two straight days falls within a predictable scope,” she added, saying the numbers “could be seen as showing that South Koreans have done a good job of observing social distancing over the past two weeks.”

On Sept. 3, the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters (CDSCH) extended the current social distancing levels for an additional four weeks, while increasing the number of people allowed to take part in private gatherings.

The CDSCH said at the time that it anticipated a peak in new cases within the range of 2,000-2,300 between Sept. 5 to Sept. 20 if the current level of virus countermeasures were upheld and there was an increase in vaccinations.

But experts predicted that it would be more difficult to reduce the caseload with the upcoming Chuseok holiday and the increase in private gathering sizes involving fully vaccinated people. Instead, they stressed the need for ongoing discussions on how to achieve a “gradual return to normalcy” with shoring up of the healthcare system and measures to prevent additional transmission.

“Given that the vaccination rate is not likely to have an immediate effect on the caseload during the month of September, it’s unlikely that we’re going to reduce the numbers from their current levels with the Chuseok holiday coming up and the number of allowable participants in private gatherings being increased as a vaccination incentive,” said Choi Won-seok, a professor of infectious diseases at Korea University Ansan Hospital.

“Once we have a situation that the healthcare system can cope with, where the daily confirmed caseload remains in the 1,000–1,5000 range without any sharp increases, then I think we’ll have the opportunity to gradually reduce [disease control measures],” he said regarding the timeline for a “gradual return to normal.”

By Kim Ji-hoon, staff reporter

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