Yoon Seok-youl's Approval Rating Falls Below 30%, While Lee Jae-myung and Lee Nak-yon's Ratings Rise the Steepest This Year: What about the Gap Between the Candidates?

[경향신문]

Mixed forecasts have been made for major presidential candidates who are ahead in the approval ratings. Yoon Seok-youl, former prosecutor general who was ahead among opposition candidates, saw his support fall below 30% in just four months, while support for Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myung and former leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Nak-yon is making a record-breaking climb this year, according to a recent survey. In the case of a two-way race, the gap between the support for each candidate was within the margin of error.

On July 15, the survey firm Realmeter announced the results of a survey on the public’s preference in future presidential candidates. The company conducted a survey of 2,036 respondents nationwide in the second week of July (12-13) upon request from OhmyNews. The results showed that 27.8% supported former Prosecutor General Yoon, 26.4% Governor Lee, and 15.6% former ruling party leader Lee.

The candidates were followed by former justice minister Choo Mi-ae (5.2%); former chairman of the Board of Audit and Inspection Choe Jae-hyeong (4.2%); People Power Party lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo (3.6%); lawmaker of the former United Future Party (currently the People Power Party) Yoo Seong-min (2.0%); leader of the People’s Party Ahn Cheol-soo and former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun (1.7% each); People Power Party lawmaker Yun Hee-suk (1.5%); Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong (1.3%); Justice Party lawmaker Sim Sang-jeung, former leader of the Liberty Korea Party (currently the People Power Party) Hwang Kyo-ahn, and People Power Party lawmaker Ha Tae-keung (1.1% each); Democratic Party of Korea lawmaker Park Yong-jin (0.5%); and Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Du-kwan (0.4%). Other answers included others (0.8%), no supporting candidate (2.7%), and undecided (1.3%).

What was notable was the fall of Yoon, who led the polls among both the ruling and opposition candidates. Compared with the survey conducted in the previous week, the fourth week of June (June 21-22), by the same company, Yoon’s approval rating dropped by 4.5%. His approval rating had surpassed 30% in March, shortly after he stepped down as prosecutor general, but it fell 4.5% from the survey conducted on June 21-22 and recorded 27.8%. Meanwhile, Governor Lee’s approval rating climbed 3.6% to 26.4%.

Governor Lee’s approval rating increased 3.6% from the previous survey, reaching a record high since the survey in May. Lee Jae-myung managed to narrow his gap with Yoon to 1.4%, which lies within the margin of error.

Lee Nak-yon’s approval rating soared 7.2% from the previous survey, trailing Governor Lee by 10.8%. This was the strongest support for the former ruling party leader this year. His previous record was 15.5% in February.

Yoon’s approval rating fell in most areas and most age groups, but the biggest drop was in the Honam region (-10.7%). Lee Jae-myung’s approval ratings mainly rose in Honam (+17.2%), Chunghcheong, Gyeonggi and Incheon and among thirty-somethings and people over seventy, but dropped among Democratic Party supporters (-3.1%). Lee Nak-yon’s approval ratings increased in Busan, Ulsan, Gyeongsangnam-do, and in Honam (+11.7%), as well as among twenty-somethings and people in their sixties and Democratic Party supporters (+9.0%).

The combined approval rating for the ruling party candidates rose 3.5% to 50.9%, while support for the opposition candidates fell 5.2% to 44.3%. The ruling party candidates overturned the race in a month since a survey conducted at the end of May.

The gap narrowed between the candidates when assuming a two-way race between Yoon and Lee Jae-myung and Yoon and Lee Nak-yon, showing that the race could be close. In the case of Yoon Seok-youl versus Lee Jae-myung, Yoon’s approval rating was 39.4%, while support for Lee was 38.6%. Compared with the survey conducted in the fourth week of June, the gap narrowed from 12.6% to 0.8%. In the case of Yoon versus Lee Nak-yon, 41.0% of the respondents supported Yoon, while 36.7% supported Lee, bringing the gap within the margin of error.

In a survey on the suitability of the candidates within the Democratic Party, 32.9% of the respondents thought Governor Lee was a suitable candidate, 9.7% ahead of Lee Nak-yon (23.2%). They were followed by former Minister Choo Mi-ae (9.5%), lawmaker Park Yong-jin (5.4%), former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun (4.6%), and lawmaker Kim Du-kwan (1.6%). Swing voters (none, undecided) accounted for 22.7%.

As for the suitability of the opposition candidates, former prosecutor general Yoon recorded 30.7%, lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo 15.3%, former lawmaker Yoo Seong-min 9.0%, former chairman of the BAI Choe Jae-hyeong 6.0%, Ahn Cheol-soo 4.5%, Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong 3.9%, lawmaker Ha Tae-keung 3.2%, former party leader Hwang Kyo-ahn 2.4%, and lawmaker Yun Hee-suk 2.3%. Floating voters accounted for 21.2%.

Bae Cheol-ho, senior researcher at Realmeter explained the latest survey results and said, “In the case of Yoon, his approval ratings dropped due to the allegations surrounding his wife and mother-in-law, whereas ruling party candidates enjoyed the effects of bringing their supporters together--a convention bounce from the preliminary primary.”

The latest survey had a 95% confidence level with a ±2.2% margin of error. For more details, please refer to the Realmeter and the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission websites.