Third Anniversary of the Panmunjom Declaration, But Inter-Korean Relations Remain in the Dark

[경향신문]

On April 27, 2018, President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un exchange copies of the Panmunjom Declaration for Peace, Prosperity and Unification of the Korean Peninsula after signing the declaration at the Panmunjom Peace House. Yonhap News

April 27 will mark the third anniversary of the Panmunjom Declaration, but the mood inside and outside the government reflects mixed feelings. The promise to end a long history of confrontation and open an age of peace has paled, and in just three years, inter-Korean relations have moved back to a state prior to the agreement signed by the leaders. Eyes are on the soon-to-be-released results of a review by the U.S. Joe Biden administration on U.S. policies on North Korea, but it is unclear as to whether there will be an opportunity for the Moon Jae-in government to overturn the situation with only a year remaining in its term.

After the inter-Korean summit at Panmunjom on April 27, 2018, it seemed smooth sailing for the Moon Jae-in government’s process for peace on the Korean Peninsula as the world witnessed the first ever summit between North Korea and the United States on June 12, 2018. But after the collapse of the second N.K.-U.S. summit in Hanoi in February 2019, dialogue between North Korea and the U.S. and between the two Koreas have been suspended, weakening the drive for talks.

Minister of Unification Lee In-young will be attending an event hosted by a private organization on April 27, but other than this, there will be no official ceremony commemorating the declaration organized by the government. This also reflects the reality in which much of the significance of the Panmunjom Declaration has faded.

On the first anniversary of the Panmunjom Declaration in 2019, there was an expectation that the embers of dialogue could revive despite the collapse of the second N.K.-U.S. summit. Last year, when North Korea closed off its borders due to COVID-19, the government was confident as it said it would start with inter-Korean cooperation in health care. But three years after the Panmunjom Declaration, no breakthrough is in sight for the inter-Korean relations to escape a long deadlock.

Most of the Panmunjom Declaration, which consists of three articles and thirteen items, were not implemented. The North and South Korea Joint Liaison Office in Kaesong, which was the fruit of the Panmunjom Declaration, was demolished by North Korea last June. A regular inter-Korean summit, joint events and joint participation in international sporting events by the two Koreas vanished due to the indifference from North Korea and the novel coronavirus. Any practical possibility of the government’s plans of an end-of-war declaration and a peace system disappeared after the denuclearization negotiations were suspended.

Recently, North Korea announced that it would not take part in the Tokyo Olympics, interrupting the government’s “Tokyo plans” to take advantage of the Olympics as a chance to resume talks between the two Koreas and talks between North Korea and the U.S. Heightening conflicts between the U.S. and China have brought North Korea and China closer together, fueling uncertainty on the Korean Peninsula. Some experts voice concerns that the North Korean issue could be swept into the confrontation between the U.S. and China.

The government hopes to create momentum to resume dialogue with the South Korea-U.S. summit scheduled at the end of May, when the Biden administration is expected to conclude its review of its policies on North Korea. This is because the government believes that if North Korea and the U.S. could face each other at a negotiation table early and ease tensions, President Moon may be able to at least “restore” inter-Korean relations by the end of his term.

The remaining variable is the new U.S. policy on North Korea. The Biden administration has emphasized diplomacy and pressure based on principles, and it is not likely for North Korea to actively respond to such an approach from Washington. A diplomatic source familiar with the discussions between South Korea and the U.S. on North Korea said, “The Biden administration unusually stressed cooperation among South Korea, the U.S. and Japan in the process of establishing its policy on North Korea, but the possibility of North Korea accepting this can actually shrink.”