Harsh Judgment by the People: A Crushing Defeat for the "Incompetent and Arrogant" Ruling Party [April By-elections]

[경향신문]

Celebrating Success in Securing a Third Term as Mayor of Seoul: People Power Party Seoul mayoral candidate Oh Se-hoon celebrates holding a bouquet of flowers when he secured his election victory at the People Power Party head office in Yeouido, Seoul at around midnight April 8. National Assembly press photographers

The major opposition, the People Power Party won a landslide victory in the by-elections on April 7. Their candidates Oh Se-hoon and Park Hyung-joon have secured their victories as the mayor of Seoul and Busan respectively. The latest election, which was a preliminary battle to the presidential election, ended in an overwhelming victory for the People Power Party, so the opposition party is expected to expand its base and reorganize the party ahead of the next presidential election. For the Democratic Party of Korea, which lost a major election for the first time in five years, a change in the party’s internal power structure for the presidential election seems inevitable along with concerns of President Moon Jae-in ending up a lame duck.

According to the results of the election as of 1:10 a.m. April 8, the People Power Party enjoyed a big lead in the biggest races in the latest by-elections, the mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan. In Seoul, Oh Se-hoon secured 57.4% of the votes, while the Democratic Party candidate Park Young-sun trailed with 39.4%. In Busan, Park Hung-joon won 62.7% of the votes, far ahead of Democratic Party candidate Kim Young-choon (34.4%). The results of a joint exit poll by the three major broadcasting companies, KBS, MBC and SBS also predicted that Oh Se-hoon and Park Hung-joon would respectively defeat Park Young-sun and Kim Young-choon by a difference of 20-30%.

The People Power Party is expected to win in the elections for the chiefs of local districts as well. In the race for the chief executive of Nam-gu, Ulsan, Suh Dong-wook has secured a victory and in the race for the chief executive of Euiryong-gun, Gyeongsangnam-do, Oh Tae-wan has secured his win.

The latest election results show that the public strongly sought judgment on the Moon Jae-in government and the ruling party, with public opinion in connection to real estate at its worst due to soaring housing prices--despite the 25 real estate policies the government released--and the speculation scandal at the Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH). The fact that the elections were held because of sex offenses by former mayors Park Won-soon and Oh Keo-don also affected the election outcome.

There were concerns that more people would not vote due to political distrust following the negative campaigning by the ruling and opposition parties in the last days of the election campaign, but the voter turnout was 55.5% (tentative), the highest for a by-election. The turnout in the Seoul mayoral election was 58.2% (tentative). Some experts suggested that angry voters, whose values of fairness and justice were frustrated by issues like real estate, came out more to vote.

Since the presidential election next March is only a year away, the latest outcome is expected to trigger major change in the future power structure of both the ruling and opposition parties. The Democratic Party experienced its first defeat since the 2016 parliamentary elections and faced the public’s cold response only a year after enjoying a landslide victory in the parliamentary elections last year. Thus it will have to fiercely debate the responsibility for the latest defeat as well as the resignation of all its leaders. The party is also expected to experience conflict on the direction of future reforms. On top of this, they have to worry about President Moon becoming a lame duck. So changes in the party’s power structure for the presidential election seems inevitable.

The People Power Party won an election with nationwide significance for the first time since the 2016 parliamentary elections and has established a foothold for a new government in next year’s presidential election. Experts assessed the latest outcome and said that the party, centered on Kim Chong-in, head of the party’s emergency committee, secured a footing to restructure the opposition along with the moderates, such as former prosecutor general Yoon Seok-youl and People Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo.