Daily New Cases Hit a Low Point and Begin to Rise, Similar to the Prelude of the Third Wave

[경향신문]
The shadow of a fourth wave of COVID-19 is growing darker. At a crossroad between another wave and a lull, disease control authorities are putting everything into increasing the possibility of control, but due to variables difficult to control, such as the lax public caution amidst the spring breeze, the unstable supply of vaccines and the spread of variants of the virus, concerns of a fourth wave are increasing. The capacity to provide medical care is dispersed due to COVID-19 vaccination, and if a major wave hits the nation in this situation, the burnout of the medical staff will be unavoidable. Kwon Deok-cheol, head of the Central Disaster Management Headquarters addressed the nation on April 4 because of a sense of such a crisis.

■ Indicators Are Similar to Those Observed Before the Third Wave

The daily number of new COVID-19 cases has recorded over 500 five consecutive days, and the recent situation is similar to the situation at the end of last November, just before a third wave of the virus spread throughout the nation. After the second wave last August, the daily figures dropped to double-digit figures in September and October. Then it gradually increased and eventually surpassed 500 for three days on November 26-28, before peaking over a thousand. A low point existed between the waves, and as the waves repeatedly hit the nation, the low points also rose, which is another similar sign. The low point between the first and second wave was a single-digit figure (2) and a double-digit figure (38) between the second and third wave. We observed another low point after the third wave of 288 cases (Feb. 8) and the figures have continued to rise since then.

Another similarity is the lax public caution. When the number of daily cases fell after the second wave, in early October, disease control authorities eased physical (social) distancing, but this soon led to the third wave. Signs that the citizens are slipping away from strict precautionary measures can be seen in a number of areas along with the government’s latest extension of business hours for public facilities and easing of a ban on private gatherings of five or more people. This has led to clusters of transmission in everyday spaces, such as saunas, restaurants, and bars as well as churches and indoor sports facilities. In particular, individuals who brushed off suspicious symptoms, visited public facilities triggering the recent clusters of transmission. The number of prevention guidelines violations that disease control authorities handled in February-March has exceeded 9,700 cases.

■ Differences: Vaccination and Sufficient Hospital Beds

There is a difference from before the third wave. Most importantly, vaccination began at facilities most vulnerable to the novel coronavirus, such as care facilities and hospitals in February. According to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, the AstraZeneca vaccine was 94.1% effective and the Pfizer vaccine 100% effective in preventing transmission of the virus in people fourteen days after receiving their first vaccine shot. The authorities believe that the inoculation of ordinary citizens aged 75 and older, which began on April 1, will play a big role in containing the spread of the virus.

The spread of the virus in vulnerable facilities, such as care facilities, where clusters of transmission occurred without fail during the wave, is another positive signal. Some observations show that vaccination, which first started among patients and staff at such facilities, is coming into effect. Last November, when daily new cases surpassed 500, the number of new cases at hospitals and care hospitals recorded in the low 300s for two weeks (Nov. 15-28), but in the past two weeks (Mar. 22-Apr. 4) that number has dropped to 133. Even when we compare the number to that from mid February (Feb. 4-17), 498, the drop is clear.

Unlike earlier waves, where there were problems treating the patients due to a lack of hospital beds, the government has secured a sufficient number of beds this time. Yoon Tae-ho, director of quarantine at the Central Disease Control Headquarters said in a press briefing on April 2, “We experienced a temporary shortage due to a lack of reserve beds (at the time of the third wave), and we took special measures,” and added, “We are now in a situation where we can provide hospital beds for the number of cases that occur.”

■ The Problem Is the Unstable Supply of Vaccines

The problem is a variable outside the scope that can be controlled by our government. The government is seeking various measures to expand the number of people for the first round of vaccinations, such as minimizing the amount of vaccines discarded and extending the time period between the first and second shots. But these are only makeshift measures. If the government fails to fundamentally solve the problem of vaccine supply, it will eventually reach a limit. The government is going all out to procure vaccines, forming a government-wide task force to introduce the vaccine, but for now, it is difficult to guarantee that the government will be able to pierce through the “vaccine selfishness” of the U.S. and European countries and properly receive the necessary supply of vaccines.

The slow speed of vaccination is another problem. More than a month has passed since authorities began administering the vaccine, but only 1.86% of the population has received the vaccine. Since the effectiveness of the vaccine is not clear, the signs of the spread of various variants of the virus in South Korea are cited as another risk factor.

The fatigue from distancing and lax public caution is another obstacle. The government announced that it would strengthen punishment for violations of preventive measures based on a zero-tolerance policy, but without the voluntary participation of citizens, prevention based on punishment is bound to be limited.

Jung Jae-hun, a professor of preventive medicine at Gachon University Medical School said, “We are well aware how exhausting the distancing and preventive measures are, but a little attention and caution now can play a big role.” He further argued, “The ultimate way to end the crisis is quick vaccination. The government must work hard to receive the vaccines as soon as it can.”