[News analysis] Myanmar coup will be first litmus test for Biden's foreign policy

Myanmar likely to pivot to China, complicating US's Indo-Pacific strategy

An armed soldier blocks a road in the Myanmar capital of Naypyitaw following a coup on Feb. 1. (AFP/Yonhap News)

The military takeover in Myanmar has left the international community stunned.

The country’s armed forces toppled the civilian government, which had become a model for democratization in the developing world, and detained the country’s leader, Aung San Suu Kyi. The coup poses a serious challenge to the international consensus on democratization.

With Myanmar’s military back in power, the country is likely to adjust its relationship with the West – the US in particular – and with China, with major ramifications for the regional balance of power. This poses the first major test for the foreign policy of Joe Biden, the new US president.

The Biden administration wasted no time in denouncing the coup and hinting at possible sanctions.

“The United States opposes any attempt to alter the outcome of recent elections or impede Myanmar’s democratic transition, and will take action against those responsible if these steps are not reversed,” White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement released on the evening of Jan. 31.

Psaki added that Biden had been briefed on the issue by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.

“The United States stands with the people of Burma in their aspirations for democracy, freedom, peace and development. The military must reverse these actions immediately,” urged US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a statement on the same day.

By referring to Myanmar as “Burma,” as it was known before the military junta took over decades ago, Blinken was indicating that the US doesn’t accept the coup.

Since taking office, Biden has emphasized human rights and democracy, responding to widespread criticism that the Trump administration was too cozy with authoritarian regimes.

The coup in Myanmar will serve as a litmus test for that approach, especially since Myanmar has been a symbol of democratization in the developing world. Aung San Suu Kyi was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize for her own struggle to bring democracy to Myanmar.

Importantly, Myanmar is a critical country in terms of US-China relations. After the military ceded control to a civilian government in 2012, Myanmar normalized diplomatic relations with the US and adjusted its foreign policy, which had previously been explicitly pro-Chinese. That was a signature achievement in the Obama administration’s pivot to Asia.

Myanmar’s abandonment of its pro-China line made it possible for the US to redouble geopolitical pressure on China from the south, in partnership with Vietnam, Thailand and India.

China has sought to gain access to the Indian Ocean via Myanmar. It also hopes to build a naval base on Myanmar’s coastline as well as a pipeline to import gas produced there.

Meanwhile, Myanmar has sought to maximize its interests by opting for “equidistant diplomacy” with the US and China. It has also opened up and implemented reforms both to expand its influence in Southeast Asia and to develop its economy, taking advantage of its abundant resources and workforce.

The adjustment of relations between the three countries occurred when the military gave up power and Aung San Suu Kyi took over. That makes it likely that those relations will be adjusted once again if the military stays in control.

If the US follows through on its threatened sanctions, the Myanmar military would obviously swing back to a fully pro-China line. That would pose a serious strategic difficulty for American efforts to confront and contain China in the South China Sea and elsewhere.

Myanmar is essential for the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy and for the Quad, a four-country coalition against China consisting of the US, Japan, India and Australia.

Relations between Myanmar and China have already strengthened considerably since the outbreak of COVID-19 early in 2020. The West had basically cut off support from Myanmar even before the pandemic began, leaving Myanmar increasingly reliant on China.

During a visit to Myanmar early in January, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi promised to quickly provide the country with doses of a COVID-19 vaccine developed in China.

The West, which was already pressuring Myanmar over its crackdown on the Rohingya ethnic minority, effectively reduced economic aid and exchange even further during the pandemic. Myanmar’s neighbors Malaysia and Indonesia, both Muslim-majority states, have frequently criticized the government of Buddhist-majority Myanmar over its treatment of the Rohingya, who are Muslim.

If the Myanmar military quickly consolidates its control over the government, the US will find itself in an awkward position. Greater pressure on the military junta would only drive it further into the arms of China.

The coup also represents a test for the international community as a whole. Australia and other Western countries have urged the military of Myanmar to release Aung San Suu Kyi and respect the outcome of the election.

But the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have responded more cautiously. For example, the Philippines immediately promised not to interfere in what it described as an “internal affair” for Myanmar.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has not cooperated with the US’s strategy of containment against China.

By Jung E-gil, senior staff writer

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