[Column] How to read S. Korea's opinion polls in 2021

한겨레 입력 2021. 1. 10. 10:36
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Moon's low approval ratings don't indicate that a lame duck period has begun
South Korean President Moon Jae-in and senior Blue House secretaries and aides pledge allegiance to the flag during the first Cabinet meeting of 2021. (photo pool)
Park Chan-su

By Park Chan-su, editorial writer

The media seems to have rung in the New Year by running public opinion polls. I guess that’s inevitable, since we’re just a year away from the next presidential election.

There are two big takeaways from the first opinion polls of 2021. First, President Moon Jae-in’s job approval rating has dropped to its lowest point since his inauguration. Analysts are rushing to say that Moon’s support has dropped out from under him and that his lame duck period has begun.

Second, Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl has definitely risen to one of the top three spots in presidential candidate polls, though his exact ranking depends on the polling organization.

Public opinion polls are often described as a barometer that can indicate the direction of public sentiment. But when the needle oscillates wildly, it’s quite hard to get a clear reading of that direction.

Naively hopeful — or, alternatively, overly gloomy — views of the situation can actually prove toxic. There are countless examples of administrations and politicians who have run aground because of their obsession with opinion polls.

Like it or not, it’s undeniable that Yoon has become one of the leading contenders to represent the political opposition in the next presidential election. Tellingly, Yoon left nearly the same message in the visitors’ log when he paid his respects at the Seoul National Cemetery on the New Year as he did last year.

“Carrying on the wishes of the martyrs who laid down their lives for the fatherland, I will work with the people to make the prosecution service an institution of integrity,” Yoon wrote in 2002. The only difference this year was the omission of the phrase “with the people.”

It’s obvious why Yoon would have left that phrase off. He was trying to avoid political controversy. But considering that otherwise he repeated last year’s message, we can surmise that Yoon wanted readers to supply the missing phrase on their own.

There are legitimate concerns about whether a prosecutor general of this sort can maintain political neutrality. But the important thing isn’t Yoon himself, but the “people” mentioned in his message a year ago.

Rather than sparring directly with Yoon, the ruling party needs to accept that winning the support of the people in the mayoral by-elections in Seoul and Busan this coming April is the most effective way to pursue its goal of prosecutorial reform.

In the New Year’s polls, Moon’s approval rating ranges from the high 30s to the low 40s. Regardless, it’s undeniable that his approval is at the lowest point since he took office.

But does that really mean that his lame duck period has begun and that his floor of support has collapsed?

The biggest problem for a lame duck president is that the parliament and the ruling party become less eager to legislate his or her policy agenda. That’s why it’s so hard to be a “successful” president.

But whereas the US Congress holds exclusive lawmaking power, that doesn’t determine an administration’s success or failure in South Korea. Instead, the problem is the administration’s weakening control over government bureaucrats, and their mood will be greatly affected by the results of the by-elections this April.

Analysis of past presidents invalidates lame duck theory

It’s nearly nonsensical to describe Moon’s falling approval rating as the prelude to the collapse of his administration. Let’s take a look at job approval ratings (courtesy of Gallup Korea) in the first quarter of the fifth year of previous presidents. Kim Young-sam’s approval rating was 14%, Kim Dae-jung’s was 33%, Roh Moo-hyun’s was 16%, and Lee Myung-bak’s was 24%.

Although Park Geun-hye’s impeachment cut her presidency short by about a year, her approval rating in January, February, and March of her fourth year in office (2016) ranged from 36% to 43%. That’s similar to Moon’s current approval rating.

The press at the time described that as the floor of Park’s approval rating. Confident in that support, Park rammed through nominations of loyal lawmakers in the general elections that April, ultimately leading to her party’s defeat and sending her approval rating plunging below 30%. That’s when her floor of support actually collapsed.

There may well be differences between Moon and Park’s political positions, but applying arbitrary standards to Moon’s approval rating serves little purpose other than launching a political attack.

Questionable accuracy of polls

What’s most important is for the party in power to accurately interpret the results of opinion polls. If public support has fallen, it’s crucial that the party gain a clear understanding of why.

With issues such as real estate and education that impact large segments of the public, the ruling party ought to take time to gather various opinions as it looks for solutions. Pushing for quick results on such issues is liable to have unintended consequences.

Something similar can be said for efforts to fight COVID-19. Both progressive and conservative administrations hold the same goals and values in their fight against the pandemic. That’s why the ruling party needs to proactively explain its plans to opposition lawmakers and seek their cooperation.

But when political values are clearly divided on a given issue, such as launching the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials, the ruling party should quickly roll out the program and then take responsibility for its results. Being rigid where flexibility is required and vacillating on matters that demand speed and firmness has a big impact on approval ratings.

The same goes for the debate over whether Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye should be pardoned. Opinions are bound to differ sharply depending on one’s political goals and values.

Unifying the public and broadening one’s base of support must be achieved through implementing policy and improving people’s quality of life. They can’t be achieved by abandoning one’s values or moving closer to the political center.

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]

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