R.O.K.-U.S. Joint Military Exercise in March Could Be the First Test in N.K.-U.S. Relations

[경향신문]

On December 29, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (fourth from left) presided over the 22nd Meeting of the Political Bureau of the 7th Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea. Korea Central News Agency, Yonhap News

The launch of the Joe Biden administration in the United States, intensifying conflicts between the U.S. and China, and a North Korea planning to adjust the direction of its national strategy in time for the tenth year of Chairman Kim Jong-un’s rule: amid this changing international environment, the Moon Jae-in government is now approaching the end of its term. The Biden administration’s foreign policy has yet to take shape, and North Korea has yet to hold the eighth party congress, which will set the standard for its domestic and international policies, but one thing is clear--the year 2021 will be a turning point for the Korean Peninsula. For the Moon Jae-in government, which only has a year and five months left in office, 2021 will be a critical time that could determine the success or failure of the process for peace on the Korean Peninsula.

■ R.O.K.-U.S. Alliance

President-elect Biden expressed his willingness to cooperate with countries that share the value of democracy and a vision for the future. With China on his mind, he values U.S. relations with Asian allies and is aware of the importance of U.S. relations with South Korea. The Biden administration is expected to pursue cooperation and coordination rather than opt for unilateral decisions or pressure when it comes to issues related to the R.O.K.-U.S. alliance. Thus many experts believe South Korea’s relations with the U.S. will remain reciprocal and stable with the launch of the Biden administration. Also, the U.S. is expected to expand bilateral cooperation on global issues, such as climate change and COVID-19, currently the most urgent issue in the U.S.

However, the Biden administration also expects South Korea to fulfill its obligations as an ally. They will demand South Korea to act in unison with the U.S. not only on bilateral issues, but also on issues concerning China and North Korea, so the inauguration of the Biden administration could be a crisis as well as an opportunity for South Korea.

In South Korea’s relations with the U.S. the first challenge is likely to be North Korea. If the Moon Jae-in government is impatient, obsessed with leaving a legacy in foreign affairs and security, such as the process for peace on the Korean Peninsula and inter-Korean relations, with slightly over a year remaining, it could create friction with the U.S.

■ The North Korean Nuclear Program and N.K.-U.S. Relations

North Korea is the only country that has remained silent on Biden’s election victory. This shows that Pyongyang is struggling to establish a new relationship with the U.S. When it comes to the Biden administration’s policy on North Korea, it is difficult to rely on friendly relations between the state leaders or to expect a solution through summits as in the days of Trump. The new administration is likely to actively raise an issue with the condition of human rights in North Korea and to express a stern position on sanctions against the North.

The Biden administration may opt for a practical approach by showing primary interest on freezing and reducing North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities. But they will not abandon the ultimate goal of denuclearization, so they are expected to try to clearly set the ultimate goal and draw a blue print even if they agree to “small deals.” Such an approach would not be much different from the comprehensive agreement and gradual implementation pursued by the Trump administration after the collapse of the Hanoi summit.

It is not likely for president-elect Biden, who assessed Trump’s policy on North Korea as a failure, to declare his succession of the Singapore agreement, but abandoning the agreement altogether would also be a burden on Biden. So, he is likely to lure North Korea by refining the elements of the Singapore agreement in a more sophisticated and specific manner. The problem is North Korea’s response. It is important to manage a vacancy of at least six months, until the Biden administration establishes its policy on North Korea. The R.O.K.-U.S. joint military exercises in March could be the first test.

■ Conflicts Between the U.S. and China

Issues of conflict between the U.S. and China are bound to have a direct impact on South Korea’s relations with China, so conflicts between the two powers will be the biggest challenge realistically and in the long term when it comes to South Korea’s foreign policy. The Biden administration fiercely criticized China’s suppressive regime and human rights problems. He publically spoke of organizing a “Summit for Democracy.” Thus the strife between the U.S. and China could lead to a confrontation of blocs as in the Cold War era. South Korea’s problem is that South Korea, which pursues liberal democracy and a market economy, will not be able to avoid participating in Washington’s various ideas to keep China in check, but it must avoid appearing too active in the solidarity centered on the U.S. against China.

South Korea’s dilemma cannot be solved by choosing any one side between the U.S. and China, so experts argue that it is important for Seoul to establish a clear direction and principles. In other words, rather than support any one bloc, South Korea should respond by establishing principles seeking the values and sovereignty of South Korea. Kim Han-kwon, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy said, “If it is an issue that South Korea cannot avoid, it should quickly release the government position with principles defined based on our values, identity, and national interest through a national consensus.”

■ South Korea’s Relations with Japan

South Korea’s relations with Japan in the Biden era could develop in a way different from the past. The Biden administration, which stresses the solidarity among South Korea, the U.S. and Japan, is expected to be more active in resolving issues of conflict between South Korea and Japan, unlike the Trump administration, which lacked interest in this issue. In particular, the Biden administration could take interest in resolving the greatest problem at present, the court ruling on the compensation for forced labor.

This problem can act as a burden on both South Korea and Japan, but it weighs heavier on South Korea. When it comes to the issue of forced labor, it is not easy for the U.S. to side with South Korea, and since the comfort women agreement between South Korea and the U.S., carefully mediated by the Barack Obama administration in the past, was practically nullified by the Moon Jae-in government, it is not easy to expect U.S. support on this issue. The South Korean government is aware of this and is actively trying to improve its relations with Japan, but the problem is that a solution to the key issue, forced labor, is not easy.

Depending on the outcome of the force labor problem, one country could suffer a significant political blow, so a diplomatic solution is not easy either. One diplomatic source pointed out, “If a political decision is hard to make, we need to find an exit that can minimize the impact on domestic politics.”