No Easy Way Back to Normal: Four Mistaken Facts that Make People Less Sensitive to Physical Distancing

[경향신문]
On November 24, physical (social) distancing in the Seoul metropolitan area was tightened to level 2. Many people could feel like giving up after accumulated fatigue due to a series of physical distancing measures all year long. South Korea still has a much smaller number of confirmed COVID-19 cases compared with the U.S. and Europe, and since it has done fairly well in overcoming the previous two outbreaks, one might think, “Nothing will happen this time either just because I don’t follow the guidelines.” Perhaps this is why even now, as the nation witnesses a third surge of COVID-19 cases, we can see some people enjoy gatherings and not wearing masks.

However, there is no easy way to return to normal. In order to strengthen our determination to fight the virus, we listed a handful of mistaken facts that make people less sensitive to physical distancing.

A patient transported by an ambulance heads to the emergency room at Chosun University Hospital in Dong-gu, Gwangju on the morning of November 24. There are two general hospitals (level-3 hospitals) in Gwangju. One of them, the Chonnam National University Hospital stopped treatment after the spread of COVID-19, so the Chosun University Hospital ER has been experiencing an excessive inflow of patients. Yonhap News

1.South Korea Has Much Fewer Cases of COVID-19 than Other Countries

Compared with the U.S., where 200,000 cases are confirmed in a single day, and Europe, where tens of thousands of new cases are confirmed daily, the situation in South Korea is indeed clearly better. But experts warn that since the number of COVID-19 cases do not increase in direct proportion, but tend to grow exponentially, there is always a possibility of the situation in South Korea going out of control as in other countries anytime when the nation fails to stop the spread of the virus before the numbers hit an inflection point.

Eom Joong-sik, a professor of infectious diseases at Gacheon University Gil Hospital said, “It takes 2-3 weeks to see the effects of level-2 distancing,” and explained, “If the transmission of the virus is not sufficiently blocked in that time, the number of new daily cases could increase to 1,000 or 2,000 after 2-3 weeks.” If the number of confirmed cases suddenly jumps all at once, it will be impossible to trace and diagnose patients through diagnostic testing and tracing, and the medical system can collapse. After that, the exponential growth will accelerate and trigger a vicious cycle.

In other words, we shouldn’t relax just because the number of daily new cases around 300 is smaller compared with other countries. Jung Jae-hun, a professor of preventive medicine at Gacheon University Gil Hospital said, “The size of the waves is growing each time a wave (outbreak) comes in,” and added, “Even if we can control the current situation, a fourth wave will come and the situation will become more difficult.”

Employees of the Seoul metropolitan government and the Seoul Metro hold a placard encouraging citizens to wear masks when boarding the subway at Gwanghwamun Station on Line 5 of the Seoul Metro. / Kwon Do-hyun

2.Isn’t It up to Luck After All?

According to a COVID-19 awareness survey of 1,076 adults conducted by a research team led by Yoo Myung-soon, a professor at the Seoul National University Graduate School of Public Health on November 6-8, 46.1% of the respondents answered, “Whether or not I am infected is somewhat up to luck.” But if we follow preventive measures, the possibility of contagion drastically declines.

Last September, 27 people attended a presentation of a door-to-door sales company in Daegu. Later, 26 of them were tested positive for COVID-19. Only one person managed to avoid transmission--the one who kept a KF94 mask on at all times on site. Last June, in Jeollanam-do, three passengers who were in a car with the windows up for over an hour with a COVID-19-positive person all tested negative for the virus. This was also due to the power of masks, for the passengers not once took their masks off while in the car.

On November 24, when level-2 physical distancing was enforced in the greater Seoul area to prevent the spread of COVID-19, customers wait to place their orders at a cafe franchise in downtown Seoul. Kwon Do-hyun

3.A Vaccine Will Be Out Soon

The vaccines developed by Pfizer and Moderna have showed that they are over 90% effective in preventing the virus in phase-3 clinical tests, and it looks like the COVID-19 vaccines may be injected to people as early as this year in the U.S. and Europe. But according to our government’s announcement, vaccination is expected to be possible in the second half of next year, given the time needed to verify the safety of the vaccines and to prepare a distribution system. Even if the vaccine is injected, people could show different responses according to their age and individual conditions, so it is still too early for anyone to guarantee the duration of the effects of the vaccine and how effective it will be in preventing the virus.

This is why health authorities see vaccines as a supplementary measure and not an alternative to physical distancing. Sohn Yeong-rae, director of strategic planning at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters under the Ministry of Health and Welfare said, “If we begin injecting vaccines to those most vulnerable, we expect to keep COVID-19 under control while managing level-1 quarantine.”

On November 24, the entrance is closed tight at Prume Health Care Medical Center in Gongju, Chungcheongnam-do, where a clutter of COVID-19 cases was confirmed. Yonhap News

4.Isn’t It Okay If You’re Young and Healthy?

It is true that young people and middle-aged people without any chronic diseases are relatively safe from COVID-19. A look at the COVID-19 patients in serious or critical condition and the deaths from COVID-19 shows that people over the age of 60 account for around 90% of the cases. But experts claim young people shouldn’t be too relaxed, because a steady number of serious cases occur among young people, too, and there are patients who suffer side effects. According to the research results by the team of Amitava Banerjee, a professor at University College London reported by the British newspaper, the Guardian, of 200 COVID-19 patients, whose average age was 44, 70% suffered damage to one or more organs, such as the heart, lung, liver and pancreas, four months after recovery. Most of all, young people who actively engage in social activities with light symptoms or no symptoms pose a great risk of becoming a link for transmissions in the local community, so they need to be particularly more careful. If a string of transmissions triggered by these young people spreads to nursing homes and care facilities where high-risk groups reside, the number of deaths can rapidly increase.