Despite frigid start, 2026 likely to be to 4th-hottest year on record

Despite 2026 kicking off with a prolonged cold snap, Korea is expected to see a warmer-than-usual year overall, raising the possibility that it could become the fourth-hottest year on record following the past three years.

People seek shade to avoid the sun at Gwanghwamun Square in Jongno District, Seoul, on Aug. 5, 2025, amid a heat wave. [YONHAP]

Despite 2026 kicking off with a prolonged cold snap, Korea is expected to see a warmer-than-usual year overall, raising the possibility that it could become the fourth-hottest year on record following the past three years.

In its annual climate outlook for this year, released Friday, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) put the probability that the nation’s annual mean temperature will be higher than the 1991-2020 average at 70 percent. The chance of temperatures being near normal was 30 percent, while the probability of cooler-than-normal conditions was zero percent.

The forecast indicates there is virtually no chance that 2026 will be a cooler year. The outlook was based on a comprehensive review of projections from the KMA’s annual climate prediction system, DePreSys4, a global Earth-system climate model, along with an analysis of current climate conditions.

The annual climate prediction system projects this year’s annual mean temperature to be 1.12 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than normal on average, with an estimated range of 0.6 to 1.83 degrees, according to the KMA. This is higher than projected warming for the globe at 0.62 degrees and for East Asia at 0.86 degrees.

Even so, the KMA said the figure is unlikely to surpass 2024, which saw record-breaking heat, with the annual temperature anomaly reaching 2 degrees. Still, given that 2025 and 2023 were also around 1.2 degrees warmer than normal, 2026 is likely to rank as the fourth-hottest year.

The continued warming trend is attributed to the development of strong anticyclonic circulation around the Korean Peninsula, driven in part by elevated sea surface temperatures.

“High sea surface temperatures — including in the Atlantic — can enhance convective activity and lead to the formation of a large high-pressure system in the upper atmosphere over Korea,” Cho Kyung-sook, head of the KMA’s climate prediction division, said in a briefing Friday. “As the air descends, it can warm through adiabatic heating, pushing temperatures higher.”

People walk through Gwanghwamun Square in Jongno District, central Seoul, using hoods as it snows on Jan. 12. [YONHAP]

Annual precipitation is expected to be broadly in line with normal levels. The KMA put the probability of near-normal annual rainfall at 50 percent, higher-than-normal rainfall at 30 percent and lower-than-normal rainfall at 20 percent. It warned, however, that localized downpours could occur when cold, dry low-pressure systems from the north collide with warm, humid air from the south.

The KMA also warned that extreme weather — including cold snaps and heat waves — could become more frequent as global warming increases variability in atmospheric patterns.

“With Arctic temperatures rising, the jet stream weakens, and cold air can instead spill down toward Korea, meaning extreme cold is still possible,” Cho said. “This year, too, when it’s cold it will be intensely cold, and when it’s hot it will be intensely hot.”

KMA Administrator Lee Mi-sun also urged heightened preparedness, noting that temperatures and sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above normal, increasing the risk of damage from heat waves and abnormally warm seas. She added that greater volatility in rainfall means extra caution is needed over region-specific impacts such as droughts and torrential rains.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom. BY CHON KWON-PIL [kim.minyoung5@joongang.co.kr]