[News Today] Rift over doctor supply projections

[LEAD]
The government is pushing to expand medical school enrollment, citing projections that Korea will face a shortage of up to 11,000 doctors by 2040. But the medical community says the opposite, arguing there will actually be an oversupply of doctors by that time.

[REPORT]
A seminar hosted jointly by the Korean Medical Association.

It was organized to refute an announcement by the government-affiliated committee that projects physician workforce.
Earlier, the committee said there would be a shortage of up to 11,000 doctors by 2040.

The KMA pushed back by saying that by 2040 there would be up to 18,000 more doctors than needed.

In other words, its prediction says there will be an oversupply of doctors. The gap with the government estimate is about 29,000 doctors.

The KMA says that when doctors' long working hours are taken into account and each doctor is assumed to work 40 hours a week, the supply of doctors goes up.

According to this estimate, the number of practicing doctors in 2040 will reach 165,000 up to 18,000 more than needed.

The KMA is also urging the government to halt its plans to expand medical school enrollment quota.

Kim Taek-woo / Chair, Korean Medical Association
If the quota is increased without improvements in the serious flaws, we will respond with physical action.

The committee rebutted by saying it produced the best possible results and the estimation was conducted jointly with the members recommended by the KMA.

The Ministry of Health and Welfare also said it would discuss the issue of medical school enrollment quota based on the committee's forecast, and appears determined to apply all of next year's quota increase to the regional physician system.

Jeong Eun-kyeong / Minister of Health and Welfare
The committee's forecast is the best result at this point based on observable data and points that can be agreed upon.

With the ongoing dispute over the forecast of doctor numbers to determine the medical school quota, a second round of conflict between the medical community and the government is expected.

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