Why Korea’s humanoid ambitions require a two-track strategy

People tend to overestimate the near future and underestimate the distant one. Yet what seems far away can arrive sooner than expected.

Seo Seung-woo

The author is a professor of electrical and computer engineering at Seoul National University.

U.S. media recently reported that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has begun holding a series of meetings with chief executives in the robotics industry as Washington explores ways to provide sweeping support for the sector. After AI, the U.S. government is now turning its attention to robotics to bolster national security and encourage corporate reshoring, with officials reportedly considering executive orders related to the technology.

Atlas humanoid robot arranges parts at Hyundai Motor's booth at the CES 2026 in Las Vegas [HYUNDAI MOTOR]

According to the International Federation of Robotics, China accounted for 54 percent of all new industrial robot installations worldwide last year, supplying about 295,000 units. Beijing has designated humanoid robots as a national core industry and is expanding their application across advanced manufacturing, defense and public safety, steadily strengthening its industrial dominance.

The Beatbot RoboTurtle 'Turtini' prototype swimming turtle robot for monitoring water quality, studying wildlife and assisting disaster response is demonstrated during the annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, Nevada on Jan. 7. [AFP/YONHAP]

China has built a robust manufacturing ecosystem capable of rapidly producing customized components, allowing new humanoid robot hardware to be developed within a year. Combined with its vast labor pool, which enables the mass production of high-quality data for robot AI training, China appears poised to close the gap with the United States in software as well. In many respects, it is only a matter of time.

The Korean government last year unveiled an ambitious K-Humanoid plan, pledging large-scale investment to become one of the world’s top three humanoid robotics powers. The initiative includes the creation of a K-Humanoid alliance involving government, academia and industry, and a commitment to invest 1 trillion won (roughly $680 million) by 2030 to concentrate on core technologies in robot AI and hardware.

For such a vision to avoid becoming mere rhetoric, however, a more carefully calibrated two-track strategy is required. A 1 trillion won investment is insufficient to build from scratch an ecosystem on the scale of those in the United States or China. The most realistic approach is therefore to seek a strategy of coexistence within the current global landscape.

Leading firms in the United States and China have already demonstrated the commercial viability of key hardware technologies through performances such as marathon running, somersaults and kung fu. This trend was again evident at this year’s CES in Las Vegas. China has also announced plans to begin large-scale deployment of humanoid robots as early as this year.

Once mass production begins, the cost and importance of major mechanical components such as actuators and reduction gears, which currently account for more than half of a robot’s cost and value, are likely to fall sharply. By contrast, robot AI and semiconductors, which now represent only 10 to 20 percent of costs, will grow in importance to more than 50 percent, becoming the decisive factors in future competitiveness.

From a strategic perspective, Korea would be better served by investing in enabling technologies that will matter most five years from now. In particular, robot AI based on artificial general intelligence and low-power inference semiconductors should be a priority.

At the same time, Korea needs a parallel strategy for developing its own humanoid robot models. Fully autonomous driving technology has advanced past the 90 percent mark after more than 15 years of commercialization efforts, but humanoid robotics, a related technology, remains in an early, experimental stage.

As Rodney Brooks, often described as a pioneer of robotics, has advised, the robots of the future may not resemble humans at all. Current learning approaches for humanoid robots, no matter how many behaviors are taught, are unlikely to push performance far beyond the limits of human physical capability. If the goal is to create robots that surpass human productivity, the very concept of the humanoid robot must be redefined to fit that purpose.

A robot from Chinese company Unitree is displayed during the 2026 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegason Jan. 8. [XINHUA/YONHAP]

For example, developing robot AI that exceeds human performance based on a new form factor more efficient than the human body could help Korea differentiate itself and potentially achieve a world-leading position in industrial competitiveness. This path, however, carries significant risks.

As many experts point out, in robot AI, only the top player with sufficient capital and data is likely to survive. At present, Korea lacks both at the necessary scale. This reality makes strategic prioritization even more critical.

People tend to overestimate the near future and underestimate the distant one. Yet what seems far away can arrive sooner than expected. Within three or four years, Korea may well see imported humanoid robots working on its factory floors. From a national security standpoint, the time has come for a more precise, forward-looking strategy to nurture the robotics industry.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.