Canada’s submarine bid Is a presidential project

Mega nuclear and defense export bids are, by nature, presidential projects. Both credit and blame ultimately rest with the president.

Cha Se-hyeon

The author is an editorial writer at the JoongAng Ilbo.

There is a growing fear that Korea is once again heading down a losing path. After Poland, now Canada looms as the next test. Late last year, a Korean “one team” consortium led by Hanwha Ocean and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries failed to win Poland’s Orka submarine program, losing out to Sweden’s Saab. Poland was expected to serve as a bridgehead for Korea’s defense exports into Europe. Seoul even offered to transfer a retiring Jangbogo-class submarine free of charge. It was not enough.

Prime Minister Kim Min-seok of Korea and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney inspect the submarine ROKS Jang Yeong-sil at Hanwha Ocean’s Geoje shipyard in Geoje, South Gyeongsang, on Oct. 30, 2025. From left in the front row are Canadian Defense Minister David McGuinty, Prime Minister Kim, Prime Minister Carney and Kim Dong-kwan, vice chairman of Hanwha Group. [YONHAP]

There were multiple reasons behind Poland’s choice, but the Polish defense minister repeatedly emphasized operational requirements in the Baltic Sea. The waters off Poland average just 50 (164 feet) to 100 meters deep. Facing Russia as its principal adversary, Poland wanted submarines capable of operating freely in such shallow seas. Korea, however, proposed a 3,600-ton diesel-electric submarine, the largest in its class. It was akin to recommending a fully loaded Genesis sedan to a customer looking for a compact Avante. Saab proposed a 2,000-ton platform.

Despite this background, President Lee Jae Myung told Poland’s president during a meeting in New York last September that Korean weapons offered strong quality, value for money and reliable delivery schedules. With Lee having pledged to elevate Korea into the world’s top four arms exporters, critics say he missed the strategic point.

A similar misstep now appears possible ahead of Canada’s Canadian Patrol Submarine Project, or CPSP, with proposals due in early March. Canada plans to acquire up to 12 submarines. Including maintenance and life cycle costs over 30 years, the project could be worth as much as 60 trillion won (about $41 billion), making it the largest single defense export opportunity in Korea’s history. Korea’s rival is Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems, from a country that is the birthplace of the U-boat. German submarines also served as the technological foundation for Korea’s own fleet.

In October last year, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney personally toured Hanwha Ocean’s shipyard in Geoje. Kim Min-seok, who accompanied him at the time, later recalled that Carney said he was not dealing with Hanwha as a company but with the Republic of Korea as a whole. The remark captured the essence of the competition.

As Carney suggested, large defense contracts are not corporate deals but government-to-government projects. Canada has sounded out Korea on an 18-item economic cooperation package tied to the submarine bid. At its core is support for Canada’s domestic auto industry. Canada’s industry minister has even floated the idea that Germany’s Volkswagen proposed building an electric vehicle battery plant in the country, while asking whether Korean automakers would consider establishing local production facilities. Germany has gone further, offering offset arrangements involving critical minerals, liquefied natural gas and hydrogen cooperation.

Governments cannot dictate where private companies invest. For automakers already expanding U.S. production in response to Trump-era tariffs, building plants in Canada could add to management burdens. Still, governments can seek creative solutions by offering incentives, coordinating joint investments and encouraging cooperation among firms. As Germany has demonstrated, major countries are already aligning their domestic stakeholders behind government-to-government projects with urgency.

Yet with less than two months remaining before proposal submissions, there is little visible sign of such coordination between the Korean government and relevant companies. Some observers even speak of discord between the National Security Office and the National Policy Office.

A Jangbogo III Batch-II submarine built by Hanwha Ocean. [HANWHA OCEAN]

Mega nuclear and defense export bids are, by nature, presidential projects. Both credit and blame ultimately rest with the president. That was the case with the Lee Myung-bak administration’s nuclear power deal in the United Arab Emirates and with the Yoon Suk Yeol government’s nuclear project in the Czech Republic. President Lee met Carney for lunch during the APEC summit in Gyeongju despite a packed schedule and personally pitched Korea’s submarines. National Security Office chief Wi Sung-lac has since visited Canada, and there is talk of a possible trip by Kang Hoon-sik, the president’s chief of staff and special envoy for defense exports.

Still, one-off summits or envoy visits do not carry the same weight as sustained presidential engagement. That is why calls are growing for Lee to step in more directly.

Former president Lee Myung-bak once recalled making repeated early-morning calls to Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, then crown prince of Abu Dhabi and now president of the UAE, to secure Korea’s first overseas nuclear power contract in 2009. Calls were postponed multiple times, bruising his pride, but he persisted. Seoul dispatched a high-level delegation to brief officials on economic cooperation plans and proposed unprecedented security cooperation after identifying the UAE’s concerns over Iran. Amid intense pressure from France, Lee ultimately boarded a plane to Abu Dhabi to clinch the deal.

That UAE nuclear contract was valued at about $40 billion, roughly comparable to the scale of Canada’s submarine project today.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.