Pentagon says China will have more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, posing direct threat to U.S.

The U.S. government has warned that China’s accelerating buildup of nuclear weapons has reached a level that poses a direct threat to the U.S. mainland.

The DF-61 intercontinental ballistic missile is seen during a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of victory over Japan and the end of World War II in Beijing's Tiananmen Square on Sept. 3. [AFP/YONHAP]

The U.S. government has warned that China’s accelerating buildup of nuclear weapons has reached a level that poses a direct threat to the U.S. mainland.

The warning comes amid Pentagon projections that China could possess more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, compounded by satellite imagery analysis showing that nuclear warhead production facilities are expanding nationwide.

“China’s stockpile of nuclear warheads remained in the low 600s through 2024, reflecting a slower rate of production when compared to previous years,” the U.S. Department of War estimated in its recently submitted “Military and Security Developments Involving The People's Republic of China” annual report of Congress.

“Despite this slowdown, the PLA [People’s Liberation Army] has continued its massive nuclear expansion,” said the report. “While this report assessed in 2020 that China’s nuclear warhead would double from a stockpile of the low 200s over the next decade, the PLA remains on track to have over 1,000 warheads by 2030.”

In the report — the first released since the launch of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second-term administration — the Pentagon stated explicitly that “China maintains a large and growing arsenal of nuclear, maritime, conventional long-range strike, cyber and space capabilities able to directly threaten Americans’ security.”

U.S. media outlets and experts said China’s nuclear buildup goes beyond a simple increase in numbers.

The Pentagon is seen from the air in Washington on March 3, 2022. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

“Mr. Xi and his commanders appear to be seeking to shorten the time it would take to launch a nuclear counterattack, if China’s nuclear forces came under fire,” reported the New York Times last Wednesday, referring to Chinese President Xi Jinping. “The shift to what Chinese military planners call an ‘early-warning counterstrike’ is intended to warn potential enemies not to underestimate China’s nuclear readiness and resolve.”

“In 2024, China probably made progress on its attempts to achieve an early warning counterstrike capability, similar to launch on warning, where warning of a missile strike enables a counterstrike launch before an enemy first strike can detonate,” the Pentagon stated in the report.

Concrete evidence supporting this assessment has emerged through satellite imagery. The Washington Post reported Sunday that “rapid expansion of weapons-production facilities continues,” adding that “in a mountainous area of China’s Sichuan Province near the city of Pingtong, a facility to be used for the production of fissile material pits has undergone vast changes in the past five years.”

The Washington Post article cited Renny Babiarz, who headed an analysis of “half a dozen key sites” for a project by the Vienna-based Open Nuclear Network and the London-based Verification Research, Training and Information Center.

“The levels of changes that we’re seeing since around 2019 to today are probably more extensive than anything we’ve ever seen,” said Babiarz.

A member of China's People's Liberation Army gestures while standing guard at the gate of the Old City of Kashgar, Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, China, on Aug. 9. [EPA/YONHAP]

Newly constructed security walls have more than doubled the size of controlled zones within the complex, and construction or renovation work has been identified at least 10 locations, including areas surrounding facilities that produce plutonium pits, according to the analysis. The Pingtong complex is the only publicly confirmed site in China linked to plutonium pit production.

Another facility in the Zitong area of Sichuan Province has also been rapidly expanding since 2019, according to the Washington Post. The U.S. government believes that the site produces high-explosive materials necessary to detonate plutonium pits, making it a critical node in China’s nuclear weapons infrastructure.

Satellite images show extensive security walls, new storage areas and additional land development. Facilities identified include a dome-shaped high-explosive testing chamber and a tubular test tunnel measuring about 610 meters (2,001 feet) in length, both used for nuclear warhead design experiments. Experts said a recently completed building covering about 40,000 square meters (430,556 square feet) is highly likely to be used for assembling and preparing nuclear warhead components.

Recent satellite imagery has also revealed new underground tunnels and large vertical shafts near the Lop Nur nuclear test site in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, fueling speculation that China may be keeping the option of resuming nuclear testing over the long term.

China’s military expansion is also evident in its naval forces. The Pentagon's assessment stated that “Chinese sixth-generation aircraft are in the nascent stages of development and expected to be operational by 2035.”

China’s Fujian vessel on its first sea trial [BAIDU]

The Wall Street Journal reported on Nov. 7 that China’s newest carrier, the Fujian, is equipped with an electromagnetic catapult similar to that used on the U.S. Navy’s Gerald R. Ford-class carriers.

“While the Fujian represents a step up in Chinese naval power, it is conventionally powered and smaller than its nuclear-powered American counterparts,” reported the news outlet. “The Pentagon has estimated that the Fujian, which displaces more than 80,000 tons when fully loaded, can deploy up to 40 fixed-wing aircraft alongside a complement of helicopters.”

The Pentagon warned that China could become capable of strikes that “could potentially range up to 1,500-2,000 nautical miles from China,” adding that, “In sufficient volume, these strikes could seriously challenge and disrupt U.S. presence in or around a conflict in the Asia-Pacific region.”

China has strongly pushed back against the U.S. assessment.

“Chinese experts said that the Pentagon's annual report is merely another hype of the 'China threat' rhetoric, containing untrustworthy speculations and distorting facts,” said China's State-run English-language newspaper Global Times in a report published last Wednesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping pose together ahead of their summit at Gimhae International Airport in Busan on Oct. 30. [AP/YONHAP]

The article quoted Song Zhongping, a Chinese military affairs expert, saying “that the Pentagon report is speculation that distorts facts” and that “the report serves to maintain U.S. military hegemony, and its hype over China's normal national defense development is groundless and is based on double standards.”

China maintains that its defense spending remains below 1.5 percent of GDP and that its military buildup is defensive in nature and consistent with national security needs and international responsibilities.

“President Trump seeks a stable peace, fair trade and respectful relations with China, and the Department of War will ensure that he is able to achieve these objectives from a position of military strength,” said the Pentagon report in its preface.

The Washington Post on Wednesday cited Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, who said that there is “an inherent contradiction running through the report.”

“It lays bare the scale of China’s military expansion and Taiwan ambitions while simultaneously suggesting the relationship is stabilizing,” said Singleton. Those two stories can’t be reconciled — no matter how hard the [Trump] administration tries to preserve the trade truce.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom. BY BAE JAE-SUNG [kim.minyoung5@joongang.co.kr]