Winter could disappear, heat waves may triple if we don't mend our ways, Korea's climate agency data suggests

Seoul’s winters may last a mere 12 days per year by 2081, while the number of extremely hot days and tropical nights may surge to more than 90 annually, according to a new forecast.

Pedestrians carry around their puffer jackets amid the relatively warm weather in central Seoul on Dec. 7. [YONHAP]

Seoul’s winters may last a mere 12 days per year by 2081, while the number of extremely hot days and tropical nights may surge to more than 90 annually, according to a new forecast. Experts are concerned that this could result in people no longer experiencing four seasons.

According to the Korea Meteorological Administration’s (KMA) climate change-related data released on Monday, if greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on fossil fuels are not significantly reduced, the traditional seasonal cycle could be severely disrupted by the late 21st century.

Under a high-carbon emissions scenario, the length of Korea’s summer is projected to increase from the current average of 97 days, based on data from 2000 to 2019, to 169 days by the year 2081 to 2100.

In contrast, winter's duration is expected to shrink from 107 days to just 40 days by the late 21st century — less than half of its current length nationwide. In Seoul alone, the number of winter days is forecast to contract even more sharply, from 102 days to only 12.

Nationwide projections — based on a high-carbon scenario — for future changes in the length of seasons is shown through data released by the Korea Meteorological Administration on Dec. 22. [KMA]

The data, named “climate change atlas” in Korean, presents projections based on four standardized greenhouse gas pathways, ranging from a low-carbon scenario, or SSP1-2.6, to a high-carbon scenario, or SSP5-8.5. The low-carbon scenario assumes substantial emissions reductions leading to carbon neutrality by 2070, while the high-carbon scenario reflects continued emissions at levels similar to today's.

Days of extreme heat and tropical nights are also expected to rise dramatically. Under the high-carbon scenario, Seoul’s average number of heat wave days is projected to more than triple, from 31.1 days in the 2020s to 103.8 days in the 2080s. The number of Seoul’s tropical nights — which the KMA defines as nights when temperatures do not fall below 25 degrees Celsius (77 degrees Fahrenheit) — is forecast to increase from 31.2 days to 91 days during the same period. This would mean that people would spend more than three months each year under extreme heat conditions.

However, if greenhouse gas emissions are sharply reduced and carbon neutrality is achieved, the number of heat wave days and tropical nights in Seoul would fall to 43.9 days and 45.7 days, respectively — more than half of the levels projected under the high-carbon scenario.

The Korea Meteorological Administration's projects changes in the number of heatwave days and tropical nights in Seoul. The left panel shows the low-carbon scenario, and the right displays the high-carbon scenario. [KMA]

Through the climate change atlas, the KMA provides climate projections and impact assessments based on varying levels of global warming. The platform includes scenarios showing how Korea’s climate would change if global average temperatures rise by 1.5, 2, 3 or 5 degrees Celsius compared to preindustrial levels.

The atlas also incorporates newly approved scenarios that offer future projections regarding sea surface temperatures, surface salinity and sea level heights around the Korean Peninsula.

Lee Mi-seon, a KMA administrator, said the expanded and upgraded service is expected to be widely used by central and local governments, as well as public institutions, to develop climate crisis adaptation measures.

“It will also serve as a valuable resource for improving public understanding of climate change conditions,” Lee said.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom. BY CHON KWON-PIL [shin.minhee@joongang.co.kr]