KOSPI surges amid ‘Kkanbu’ meeting and APEC, retail investors join rally

The benchmark KOSPI index surged more than 20 percent last month, marking its strongest monthly performance in 24 years and nine months. What had been expected to be a tense “super week,” packed with major diplomatic events such as the Korea–U.S. and Korea–China summits, instead turned into a boon for the market. Growth stocks, including semiconductor shares, rallied following NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s visit to Seoul, and the upbeat mood spread to K-culture sectors as well. Retail investors, who had largely stayed on the sidelines, are now rejoining the market. However, with “big tech” companies set to release their earnings this week, analysts warn that renewed debate over an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven market bubble could emerge.

On October 31, the KOSPI closed at 4,107.50, surpassing the 4,100 mark for the first time in history. The index jumped 682.9 points in a single month, or 19.94 percent, its ninth-largest monthly gain since the KOSPI’s inception in 1983 and the highest since January 2001, when the dot-com bubble was in full swing (22.45 percent). Monthly gains of this magnitude have only been seen during the “three lows boom” period of 1987 to 88 and the volatile IMF financial crisis years of 1998 to 99, underscoring how exceptional October’s rally was.

Blue-chip stocks across sectors helped propel the index upward in October. Samsung Electronics rose 28.13 percent, Doosan Enerbility (nuclear power generation) 41.72 percent, Hyundai Motor (automotive) 34.88 percent, HYBE (entertainment) 28.2 percent, and Mirae Asset Securities (financials) 23.19 percent. Momentum spread across industries after the series of diplomatic meetings and strengthened cooperation with NVIDIA. Previously lagging sectors such as gaming, cosmetics, and entertainment also rebounded on hopes that China may soon lift its restrictions on Korean cultural exports, the so-called Hallyu ban.

Particularly notable was the impact of NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang, who strengthened partnerships with Samsung and Hyundai during his much-publicized “chimaek (chicken and beer) meeting.” His pledge to supply 260,000 GPUs to Korea boosted sentiment across semiconductor, IT, and robotics sectors. Samsung Electronics’ announcement of a formal HBM3E memory supply deal with NVIDIA led analysts to raise their price targets to as high as 140,000 to 150,000 won per share.

Market analysts say the sharp rise in domestic equities could also generate a “wealth effect,” boosting local consumption. Ryu Jin-yi, an analyst at KB Securities, said, “The bullish stock market is expected to spur a recovery in consumption in the first half of next year through the wealth effect.”

Retail investors are also smiling again. Popular stocks among individuals, such as Hyundai Motor (net buying of 1.33 trillion won) and Samsung SDI (1.28 trillion won), jumped more than 30 percent in a month. SK Hynix, which retail investors bought heavily (over 3 trillion won net in October), soared 60.86 percent during the same period.

Still, after such a rapid climb, the market could prove sensitive to negative news this week. Na Jung-hwan, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities, cautioned, “If expectations for the Fed’s rate-cut cycle or the continuation of the AI investment cycle weaken, a correction could occur.” Indeed, Meta’s stock plunged 11.33 percent on October 29 (local time) after its earnings report raised concerns over excessive AI spending, a reminder that the AI bubble debate could resurface.

Exchange rates may also become a key variable. Noh Dong-gil, analyst at Shinhan Investment & Securities, said, “The recent improvement in Korean corporate earnings has been supported by a weak won that boosted exporters’ profits. Going forward, the main source of volatility for the KOSPI may not be a stronger dollar, but a falling exchange rate.”

※This article was translated by an AI tool and edited by a professional translator.