Hardline right-winger Takaichi likely to become Japan’s prime minister, puts Korea’s ‘two-track diplomacy’ to test

Newly elected Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader Sanae Takaichi (right) shakes hands with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba after winning the party leadership election at LDP headquarters in Tokyo on October 4. / Xinhua-Yonhap

With Sanae Takaichi, the newly elected leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), widely expected to become the country’s next prime minister in mid-October, attention is now on how her leadership might affect the Lee Jae-myung administration’s two-track foreign policy of “facing history squarely while pursuing future-oriented cooperation.” Given Takaichi’s right-wing stance and her past hardline comments on historical and territorial issues, concerns are growing that bilateral tensions over wartime history could resurface. Still, others point out that the shifting global trade environment since the Trump era could push both countries to sustain cooperation.

On October 9, Japanese media reported that Takaichi is likely to refrain from visiting the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, suggesting that major turbulence in Korea-Japan relations is unlikely for now. The Yomiuri Shimbun wrote that she “decided to avoid turning the issue into a diplomatic dispute, anticipating backlash from Korea and China.”

Observers say Takaichi, who regularly visited the shrine while serving as minister for economic security, may act differently as prime minister. With U.S. President Donald Trump expected to visit Japan on October 27 to 29, shortly after Takaichi’s anticipated appointment around October 21, analysts say she likely sees little reason to risk strong backlash from Seoul by forcing a shrine visit beforehand.

Some analysts predict Takaichi will adopt a pragmatic foreign policy. They compare her trajectory to that of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who also shifted toward a centrist and moderate line after gaining popularity through far-right rhetoric. They note that the rapidly changing global trade order and intensifying U.S.-China rivalry make joint responses and cooperation between Seoul and Tokyo increasingly important, reducing the likelihood that Japan would deliberately strain ties with Korea.

Still, bilateral relations could sour if hardliners who supported Takaichi gain more influence. During a debate last month, Takaichi said that a minister “should attend the ‘Takeshima Day’ event with confidence,” and in 2022, regarding visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, she remarked, “Being ambiguous only emboldens the other side.”

Since taking office, President Lee Jae-myung has held three summits with Japan, restoring shuttle diplomacy and strengthening future-oriented cooperation. Despite domestic criticism, he has honored previous agreements with Japan and focused on expanding collaboration in economic and social fields. However, if the new Japanese prime minister raises historical issues such as wartime sexual slavery or forced labor disputes, or territorial claims over Dokdo, Seoul would find it difficult not to respond. Concerns are also rising that Takaichi’s cabinet could include more hardline figures, such as former Defense Minister Minoru Kihara, who has a history of visiting Yasukuni Shrine and is being mentioned as a possible chief cabinet secretary.

The first test for bilateral relations after Japan’s leadership transition will likely come at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit scheduled for October 31 in Gyeongju. President Lee and the new Japanese prime minister are expected to meet briefly there. If a Korea-Japan summit takes place at the trilateral Korea-China-Japan leaders’ meeting, which may be held in Japan next month, it will serve as the first major test of how the two sides will redefine their relationship under the new leadership in Tokyo.

※This article was translated by an AI tool and edited by a professional translator.