[Contribution] Why scientific earthquake information matters more than ever

Lee Mi-seon, administrator of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)

By Lee Mi-seon

Administrator of the Korea Meteorological Administration

Sparked by a Japanese manga, a rumor predicting a massive earthquake in Japan captured public attention not only in Japan but also in surrounding countries in July. Frequent tremors since June on the Tokara Islands, located south of Kyushu, heightened these concerns.

Although the mega earthquake never happened, anxiety remained, leading to reduced inbound flights and a drop in tourists. This vague fear of earthquakes had a tangible impact with significant social and economic effects.

Earthquakes, which can suddenly strike and shatter our peaceful daily lives, have been sources of dread for humanity since ancient times. Fear of the unknown has fueled efforts to observe earthquake precursors. Phenomena such as abnormal animal behavior, uncanny cloud formations and the sudden appearance of deep-sea fish in shallow waters have all been considered signs of an impending earthquake. Whenever such phenomena occur, news stories reporting them as potential precursors to an earthquake inevitably follow.

The earthquake rumor in July and the theories based on unusual animal behavior are not scientifically proven, so it’s crucial not to blindly believe them or succumb to excessive fear. Instead, we should rely on accurate, scientific information. But is there a scientific way to predict when an earthquake will occur? Unfortunately, despite advances in science and technology, accurately predicting earthquakes remains a challenge. Yet, since human history is defined by persistent challenges and progress, the quest to understand earthquakes scientifically continues.

To unravel the mysteries of earthquakes, scientists have investigated the fault lines that trigger them and closely observed various phenomena that occur before and after seismic events. Through simulations and experiments, they have worked to understand the principles of earthquake generation and to develop prediction methods to prepare for damage. Thanks to these efforts, we can now predict an earthquake's location and magnitude within a certain range based on observed data and research. Advances in technology also allow us to promptly issue early warnings when an earthquake occurs, before direct damage happens.

The Korea Meteorological Administration currently monitors earthquakes using techniques grounded in scientific methods and theories. It investigates hidden underground faults across the Korean Peninsula and surrounding seas, analyzes the characteristics and causes of earthquakes and monitors seismic activity through a nationwide observation network. When potential damage is expected or warning criteria are met, the KMA issues earthquake information or alerts. In addition, when a seismograph detects seismic waves, an earthquake early warning is issued within five to ten seconds. The agency also plans to introduce an on-site warning system to shorten the warning time to just three to five seconds.

The reason the Japanese mega earthquake rumor was widely believed, rather than dismissed, is that a Nankai Trough earthquake is expected in the near future.

If a large-scale marine earthquake occurs along the Nankai Trough, tsunamis and seismic vibrations could reach the Korean Peninsula. In response, the KMA is expanding its presimulation range for tsunamis and developing a high-resolution prediction model that considers the peninsula's coastal topography, in order to quickly and accurately assess the impact. It is also developing technology to provide seismic motion service. For example, earlier this year, an earthquake in Myanmar caused damage in Bangkok, about 1,000 kilometers from the epicenter. Since long-period ground motions can propagate over long distances and cause significant effects, the KMA is taking measures to respond to such phenomena.

The views expressed in this article are the writer's own. -- Ed.