Is the world’s experience now useless?

The troubling reality is that the most influential country in the world is rejecting knowledge gained through past experience. It is advancing policies grounded not in evidence but in untested assertions, shaking the foundations of global stability.

Cho Yoon-je The author is a special appointment professor at Yonsei University School of Economics.

The world is drifting in confusion as it enters an era of sweeping change marked by shifting balances of power, the digital revolution in artificial intelligence, the retreat of democracy, demographic shifts and climate change. In the United States, which has shaped the global order for the past 80 years, the election of U.S. President Donald Trump has fundamentally altered the country’s role. Europe, too, is witnessing the rise of the far right. The anger fueling these changes is not difficult to understand. Deepening inequality, a lack of protection for the vulnerable and unchecked greed have eroded trust in elites and the old order. The digital revolution’s disruption of media and public opinion has accelerated the backlash. History shows that such turbulence often precedes the emergence of new leaders and new systems.

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on reciprocal tariffs as U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick holds a chart during an event in the Rose Garden entitled ″Make America Wealthy Again″ at the White House in Washington on April 2. Trump geared up to unveil sweeping new ″Liberation Day″ tariffs in a move that threatens to ignite a devastating global trade war. [AFP/YONHAP]

Still, today’s trajectory stirs anxiety. In the six months since Trump’s inauguration, a tariff war has unfolded. Many analysts argue it ended as a victory for Trump’s negotiating style. Europe, Japan, Korea and Australia now face higher tariffs on exports to the United States, yet they also opened their markets further to U.S. goods and pledged new investments. By doing so, they avoided paying the full brunt of the threatened duties. Economic theory is not infallible, but neither is it easily dismissed. Tariffs may bring temporary gains for Washington, but they will ultimately raise inflation and production costs, eroding U.S. competitiveness. For now, U.S. innovation and global trust in the dollar continue to attract capital. But Trump’s approach risks dragging the world back to the 1930s, toward stagnation and heightened international conflict.

His pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates is another concern. Respect for central bank independence is not grounded in ideology but in experience. In the 1970s, then-Fed Chairman Arthur Burns succumbed to President Richard Nixon’s demands to ease monetary policy. Combined with the oil shocks, the decision triggered global inflation. That experience prompted governments in the 1980s and 1990s to strengthen central bank autonomy. In 1997, British Chancellor Gordon Brown enshrined the Bank of England’s independence in law. He acknowledged that earlier governments had expanded the money supply for short-term stimulus, leading to unsustainable growth and inflation. Delegating authority, he argued, would enable longer-term, more transparent decisions.

Economic performance depends not only on policy but on the soundness of institutions and the trust they inspire. The erosion of confidence in U.S. institutions under Trump could ultimately undermine faith in the dollar and destabilize international financial markets. For decades, the global leadership of the United States rested not only on its economic power but also on institutional credibility and inclusive diplomacy through multilateral bodies. That trust is now being squandered. The result may be to hasten the relative rise of China — the very outcome Washington seeks to prevent.

Europe, Japan and Korea chose not to retaliate with counter-tariffs. In the short term, it was a survival tactic. These countries rely on U.S. security guarantees and cannot risk higher tariffs than their competitors. In the longer term, restraint was the wiser course. Trade wars end with no winners. Beyond fueling inflation and raising production costs, protectionism encourages lobbying and corruption by domestic industries seeking shelter. Internationally, tariff escalation inflames tensions and raises the risk of war.

Workers hang a large photo of U.S. President Donald Trump next to a U.S. flag on the facade of the Department of Labor headquarters building in Washington on Aug. 27. [AFP/YONHAP]

The troubling reality is that the most influential country in the world is rejecting knowledge gained through past experience. It is advancing policies grounded not in evidence but in untested assertions, shaking the foundations of global stability.

Politics matters above all. In every nation, mistrust and anger can drag politics into populist quagmires. Korea must guard against this by strengthening inclusive economic policies and integrated leadership. At a time when traditional media's role in shaping public discourse is weakening and unfiltered social media dominates, intellectuals should work harder to broaden spaces for dialogue. Experience and knowledge drawn from history must resonate more strongly in public life.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.