Humanoids to free human workers from DDD jobs

[Courtesy of Tesla Optimus]

Supported by increasingly powerful artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities, human-like robots, or humanoids, are becoming a vital part of the world‘s technological future.

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. projected in its February 2024 report, that the global humanoid robotics market will grow to 51 trillion won ($38 billion) by 2035, with robot shipments totaling 1.4 million units a year.

The financial institution’s forecast in the latest report represents a six-fold increase in market size and a four-fold increase in robot shipments compared to its previous forecast a year ago, an indication that faster commercialization of humanoid robots is imminent.

Advances in generative AI and decreasing costs of robot production are the factors behind its forecast, Goldman Sachs said. Although traditional robots were limited in functionality and mainly used for repetitive and mundane tasks in their early days, today’s robots are becoming so-called “thinking machines” rather than mere mechanical devices thanks to their AI brain. The Increasing demand for robots, driven by rising labor costs and changes in the work environment following the COVID-19 pandemic, also enables robots to perform in a wider array of complex settings.

Cheaper robot components are also expected to lead to faster-than-expected commercialization. According to the Goldman Sachs analysis, the manufacturing cost of humanoid robots has dropped from an estimated $250,000 per unit last year to between $30,000 and $150,000 per unit. The institution expects more available components perhaps to speed up the timeline for factory applications by a year and for consumer applications by two to four years, compared with its prior estimates.

Humanoids can be especially useful for tasks considered dangerous, dirty, and dull (DDD), according to the report. The analysts foresee significant demand for robots in mining, disaster response, nuclear reactor maintenance, and chemical manufacturing.

“We believe humanoids look particularly appealing for special operations such as dangerous and hazardous tasks, considering the associated fatality rate and people’s low willingness in doing such jobs thus customers’ likely willingness to pay a higher price than typical manufacturing work,” the report said.