DP could still lose 2027 presidential race, political analyst warns

The liberal Democratic Party's landslide victory in the recent general election does not guarantee its success in the 2027 presidential election, according to political analyst Park Sung-min.

Political analyst Park Sung-min, also the head of public and political consulting firm MIN Consulting, speaks during the 2024 Korea JoongAng Daily Forum held at the Westin Josun Hotel in central Seoul on Wednesday. [PARK SANG-MOON]

The liberal Democratic Party (DP)'s landslide victory in the recent general election does not guarantee its success in the 2027 presidential election, according to political analyst Park Sung-min.

Speaking at the 2024 Korea JoongAng Daily Forum held at the Westin Josun Hotel in central Seoul, Park, the head of public and political consulting firm MIN Consulting, emphasized that the conservative People Power Party (PPP) could prevail in the presidential election, depending on centrist conservatives regarded as swing voters.

“The DP lost in the 2022 presidential election and local elections despite the party winning 180 seats in the parliament in 2020,” he said, warning against premature predictions regarding the outcome of the upcoming presidential election.

Park stressed that the current political landscape could shift as the DP won in the latest election by 5.4 percent, a drop from the 2020 general election’s 8.2 percent.

Historically, the liberal DP was considered the underdog until former President Park Geun-hye’s impeachment, which marked the end of conservative dominance. Conservatives had dominated domestic politics since 1990 when the Democratic Liberal Party — the predecessor of today's PPP — was formed with the merger of three parties, the political analyst said.

Conservatives face a crisis, Park stressed, as evident from three consecutive electoral defeats, party name changes and difficulties in garnering support outside older age brackets. The PPP changed its name four times over the past eight years since the 2016 general election, while the DP had maintained its party name.

Attributing the DP's dominance to factors such as direct presidential elections, globalization and the post-Cold War environment, Park highlighted the party's focus on addressing societal needs and vulnerable communities amid globalization's growing polarization.

He noted that inter-Korean summits were only held during DP-led administrations, with liberals advocating for peace as a catalyst for economic growth, while conservatives pursue diplomatic relations and free trade agreements for economic prosperity.

Park acknowledged the changing geopolitical landscape and the need for policy restructuring in diplomacy, security and industry amid tensions in a second Cold War.

The fate of the president remains uncertain. However, the DP could still suffer a significant loss in the 2027 presidential election if it attempts to amend policies with its dominance in parliament, just like it did four years ago, Park noted.

“It is important to note that the public voted to pass judgment on the Yoon administration rather than for an alternative future,” he said.

Looking ahead to the 2027 presidential election, Park highlighted challenges facing both the DP and potential candidates like its party leader Lee Jae-myung and minor Rebuilding Korea Party chief Cho Kuk, given their unresolved legal issues.

He concluded by outlining four scenarios in the current political deadlock, including continued vetocracy, political negotiations, constitutional amendment and the worst-case scenario of Yoon's impeachment.

BY CHO JUNG-WOO [cho.jungwoo1@joongang.co.kr]